Could Next Week's Cold Rival 2009 in Pennsylvania, NYC?
The models have been printing out (we say that because weather forecast models used to come on a dot-matrix DIFAX printout) some incredibly cold readings next week in the Ohio Valley and Northeast. At first glance, they appear to show temperatures below -15 F here in State College, home of AccuWeather HQ.
The official low temperature in State College on Jan. 17, 2009 was -3 F, but at my house, we had -15 F. It was the coldest weather I've ever experienced. Even if the model is off by +10 degrees, it sounds like we could challenge that reading next week, and in fact the official local record from Penn State of -18 F could be in play. The state record low is -42, so no problem there.
In New York City, Central Park is looking at 5 below zero according to the GFS model. That location only got down to +6 F in 2009 (they also got to +4 F last January). Their record of -15 will not likely be threatened. However, they haven't been below zero since that same cold outbreak in February 1994.
Will it happen? In meteorology you never know. The GFS is colder than the European, and there's something else at play this season: The GFS just got its resolution upgraded -- so we could be simply be seeing more precise data, causing us to think "hey the GFS has never predicted temperatures this low."
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