Christmas Storm Model Update

The latest from the Forecast Models this afternoon... both the (new & improved) NMM and GFS point to a Christmas washout for the Ohio Valley and Northeast this weekend, but the GFS is developing a new storm the day after Christmas which spreads snow on its backside from the Deep South Christmas morning into the interior Northeast Christmas night.

For Texas, the GFS continues to predict snow all the way down into Mexico on the 24th, then eastward over Dallas on Christmas Eve, but then that storm fades out into rain for the Southeast. The DGEX disagrees, saying the first storm will dip too far south to have any snow east of the Panhandle Christmas Eve morning, then after diving south it sprints northeastward but doesn't start generating heavy snow until it's past Dallas on Christmas morning. Arkansas and Missouri get walloped.

Meanwhile, PA gets a mix as the first wave comes through, while Illinois gets added to the White Christmas list. As the remnants blow through, the Deep South -- including The "Hazzard Area" [JessePedia] -- gets a taste of light snow on the morning of the 26th.

As far as accumulated snow, the DGEX has a limited area in AR & MO waking up to snow on the ground Christmas Day, but by the morning of the 27th, it's looking like the coverage area of our last major winter storm plus some light snow on the ground from Northern PA northward into New England.

The GFS, which shows snow cover (meaning that snow that fell and since melted doesn't count) shows a little snow from AL to KY on Christmas morning but a maximum extent from Tennessee to Boston on the morning the day after Christmas.

So what do AccuWeather meteorologists think? There are no official maps out past Sunday so far. The consensus is, it's still too soon to tell. Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) will have a video up shortly, but I just heard him say behind me "I ain't stickin' my neck out there on this one yet!"AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO) said in his blog this morning:

It's a pattern of storms and rumors of storms. Like the mistake in thinking the early month storm would come up further east, this current one is again going further west, but it does look like another leader, follower situation and in places that have been very mild the last week, snow is going to fall within the next 10 days the first time west, the next time further east, with two major waves coming up out of the south, the second one being the stronger of the two with its end game, and further east.

I'm not sure that helps, but now you've been inside the brains of both Meteo Madness Man and Joe Bastardi this morning.