CAPE 5000+: Plains Severe, Flooding Threat

The Plains are at risk for severe storms including large hail and tornadoes today, and flooding over the next two days. A Moderate Risk of severe storms has been issued for parts of the Central Plains while a Slight risk surrounds that, from Texas to South Dakota.

The SPC says that supercell storms will develop in much of the western part of the risk area during mid to late afternoon... merging into a line later tonight and moving eastward. In the short-term, looking at the RUC model alone, I'm most worried about western Texas -- there are incredible CAPE readings over 5000 forecast by the end of the RUC's forecast period -- 4 PM, with Lifted Indexes below -10. I'm not saying that it won't be as bad or worse in the Moderate Risk area later, I'm just telling you what the RUC says through 4 PM.

You may recall that, when looking at these two Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia], the requirements for devastating severe weather are 3500 and -6, respectively, so, umm... Wow!

As far as the flooding, the overnight run of the NMM model believes it will be in the Dakotas, the Texas Panhandle and possibly Nebraska, with over five inches falling in some places (see below). The overnight GFS has the heavy rain in somewhat different places and amounts.