Buffalo Lake-Effect Snow Early, Fast but Not Record Yet

UPDATE 11/21 9 AM:This article says a total of 85" was recorded at Wales Center, N.Y. I have seen these reports, but I'm not 100% sure that they can be added together. They were both taken by a NWS employee about a day apart. The question is, was the 48" report an update to the 37" report, or were they two different storm totals? Out of the This was the only report that I feel comfortable combining because the others, listed below, were taken by different people at different times, in some cases in different parts of the city. I have a Facebook message in to the NWS to get an answer on the Hamburg reports. Here are the others:

The CoCoRAHs reports did not indicate anything over 54" total. By the way, here's a before and after picture of Kassie's house in Cheektowaga (mentioned below):

UPDATE 11/20 4 PM: New snow reports are in, but they are south of the previous snow area and are 37 inches or less. Another article claims the 24-hour record may have been broken, but provides no source, saying only "Over six feet of snow fell in some areas on the south side of town in the last 48 hours, most of it in a 24 hour period."

In regards to a weekly record, the NWS in Buffalo has predicted the possibility of as much as 100 inches, but in a Facebook message, the NWS in Buffalo said: "The snow measurements just to our south are not considered official snow measuring sites. Many of the reports are from the public who do not measure via the strict NWS standards. Since this isn't directly affecting the airport, no records will be recorded."

UPDATE 11/20 9 AM: Lancaster reported 12.0" snow overnight, for a total this week of 75 inches. Eight are now reported dead from the storm. I made a panorama from two photos below, which are from Kassie Tamulski from Cheektowaga yesterday morning. Kassie says: "This storm has made everyone miserable. And we need to desperately get this snow off but it is so hard to. I'm here by myself and tried my best to do what I can. But people don't understand how hard it is to do."

The video below shows four lightning strikes from thundersnow during the Buffalo lake-effect event Wednesday night:

ORIGINAL POST 11/19/14: Extreme lake-effect snow fell south and east of Buffalo, New York, this week -- to the tune of 65 inches (5.4 feet). Point snow amounts are shown on the map below, where small snowflakes are >=42 inches and large snowflakes are >=60 inches (see also zoomed points map & KMZ file). For the record, the official highest totals as of this Wednesday morning from the NWS are as follows

Feet of lake-effect snow also fell elsewhere in Michigan and New York state. Although this lake-effect event is extreme, it's not unprecedented in the area. For goodness sakes, there was a 60-inch lake-effect snow report this January, and a 66-inch lake-effect event just last December! In December 2010, the forecast was for 10 feet of snow over a week, threatening roof collapses, though a maximum of 60" was reported. In 2001, 82.5" of snow (feet) fell near Buffalo over Christmas week. So, the record isn't broken yet although the lake-effect band is predicted to be back in town tonight and could approach that 82.5" amount (a record?).

The fact that this week's was this early in November is probably more notable, and the 24-hour snowfall of 32.4" reported yesterday is interesting -- possibly close to a record if it is considered in the Buffalo perimeter (see Top 10). Photos have swarmed Social Media; some collections are available on AccuWeather.com, Twitter, Buzzfeed, and elsewhere.

Back to the media: the mayor of Buffalo says it's "probably" the worst storm in more than 40 years. Before we jump to any more conclusions (like "meteorologists have never seen lake-effect snow on radar like this"), let's take a look at some numbers.

Rumors started flying last night that the record 24-hour snowfall total of 76" might be in jeopardy, but the snow band turned northward this morning, cutting that record off. Forecasts of 7 to 8 feet (in one case, 12.5 feet) of lake-effect snow will also likely turn out incorrect, at least as the result of one "storm total" (measured snow from start to stop of precipitation).

Some commenters are saying people weren't prepared for this storm, and maybe that is what's leading the media to forget all the past storms listed above. It is true that already six people have been killed and over 100 are trapped. That is unfortunate and seems a bit unusual for lake-effect regions. Regardless of media spin, weather forecasters knew last weekend that this was going to be a big one, because the effect was amplified by unusually cold air (for this time of year, when the lakes are still warm, perhaps abnormally so). AccuWeather's original forecast on Monday called for up to 3 feet -- and was raised to "5 feet or more" Monday night. I believe the highest amount I saw from any large forecasting firm was 70 inches from the NWS yesterday. But lake-effect snow bands snake around as the local winds turn, and it's nearly impossible to get more than 5 feet of snow at one location during one band of snow. Measuring snow is also difficult due to compaction as the snow gets more dense under its own weight. If we approach more records this week, I'll update this blog.

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