Bold Prediction: Snowiest In 5 Years DC - NYC!

UPDATE: Keep the Comments coming. Here are links to the previous winters for those of you who need a refresher (2002-2003 was the big year, and we are alluding to that, though J.B. said in his Pro videos today that he's not sure it will be that severe, but it will be the snowiest since then).

Last 6 years of snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic, courtesy the NCDC COOP Snow GIS system: 2003-2004 | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 | 2007-2008 | 2008-2009 N/A

UPDATE: Curt's comment below is well taken - if we are to make a prediction, at least it's been thought out and clearly explained and I think this one is the best yet in that regard.

Our Winter Forecast is out -- and we're making a bold prediction, click here for details and a video from Joe Bastardi. This may be the boldest prediction we've ever made; while snow lovers in the major cities may be rejoicing right now (I can hear their cries of glee) I hope people remember come next Spring that it is just a prediction, one done 8 months in advance and will not be 100% right.

As always, no comments will be accepted on my blog claiming that this forecast was incorrect until the end of winter (March 31, 2010), and no comments will be accepted regarding accuracy of past forecasts unless hard evidence (of both the prediction and the actual) is brought to light.

I was going to come up with some bullet points here but the truth is that we really laid it all out on this one - the article and video, if you watch both, you'll be filled in. For the major cities between D.C. and New York City, the highlights are:

1. Snowiest Winter Since 2002-2003 2. Could not be as bad as 2002-2003 3. Will still come as a shock compared to previous winters

Comments (18): greybing:

ji live in the uk andi am hoping for a cold snowy winter i was womdering what peoples thoiughts were on the likelyhood of a cold winter in europe

Posted by greybing | August 6, 2009 2:33 PM Hank:

Outside of generating traffic for the website, I don't see the value in making forecasts 5-6 months in advance. For cripes sakes, most of the forecast models aren't trustworthy after 5 days out anyway.

Calling for the snowiest winter in 5 years for the Northeast isn't really saying much with the dearth of winter temps and precip for the region as a whole in that time period. Granted New Englanders have been hit hard the past couple of seasons, but on the whole it's been a major disappointment.

Posted by Hank | July 16, 2009 9:07 AM Dave Shimek:

Hi Jesse, I just felt I had to point out something concerning Matt's posting on 7/15 (The absurdity of winter weather hype along the East Coast of the United States)

First, I have to agree with him 100%. Everything he said is true. But...

The problem is that with the exception of Chicago there are no major airports or population centers in the places that he mentions having "real" winters.

For example, Alta,Utah had 370 people living there according to the 2000 census.

As sad as it might be, a five inch snowfall and three days of 30 degree weather can cripple major metropolitan areas where hundreds of thoussands of people live and commute every day. Heck all of us along the I95 corridor have a tough time dealing with sunny, dry weather.

Posted by Dave Shimek | July 16, 2009 7:50 AM Don Mullis:

Can you give any insight on areas like Indianapolis which is in between the areas hardest hit? Looking back at that winter your referring to we had a lot of snow too, and wanting to know your thoughts on it too. Thanks!

Posted by Don Mullis | July 15, 2009 8:22 PM The Delmarva Johnster Monster:

When I think of cool summers, I remember 2003, 2000, 1996, and 1979. All of those summers were preceded by a cold snowy winter, and were not followed by a cold snowy winter. This summer however is not like anything that I have seen, at least so far. It is only the fourth time in recorded history that Baltimore went through May and June without hittng 90. Only one day so far in July has made it to 90. When I look at the NWS records going back to the 1870s, and look at the coolest summers on record, some were followed by cold snowy winters and others were not. The unusually cool summer of 1903 was followed by an extremely cold winter with slighly above normal snowfall. Given that we are in the deepest solar minimum in about 100 years, and with recent volcanic activity, my thinking is that we will see some serious cold. As far as snow goes, I say it is a toss up. Of course it only takes a couple of events to put us above normal. Joe usually does a good job with his winter forecasts. Time will tell if he hit the nail on the head with this forecast.

Posted by The Delmarva Johnster Monster | July 15, 2009 7:04 PM Anita:

Well....I am PRAYING and PRAYING that you are wrong, wrong, wrong! I will put my faith and trust in the Man who created weather rather than one who THINKS they know all about it.

Posted by Anita | July 15, 2009 7:01 PM DavePa:

Jesse, to an untrained weather fan (me), what key factors will enable the jetstream to ride up the east coast,(blocking patterns?) and are the canadian and atlantic temps showing cooler than normal readings already ? Thank you.

Posted by DavePa | July 15, 2009 6:07 PM John Antonietta:

How do you believe this winter weather pattern will impact Western Europe? I'm considering a ski trip to Zermatt in February for my 50th birthday :-)

Posted by John Antonietta | July 15, 2009 4:40 PM Jon:

I'm in New Jersey, and maybe I'm wrong here, but wouldn't a "normal" winter still be the snowiest we've had in five years?

FROM JESSE: Possibly - check those maps that I posted against your normal snowfall. Your point is well taken -- for all areas, it may not require an above normal snowfall to be the snowiest in 5 years.

Posted by Jon | July 15, 2009 4:20 PM Eric:

I have a response to the comment by Matt. I live in northeast PA (Dingman Township) and I can tell you that we get a real and lasting winter every year. I wouldn't compare it to Minnesota, but we get lots of snow and plenty of very cold temperatures. The winter here lasts from mid-November until mid-April. I think you are assuming that everyone on the east coast lives in one of the big cities or the Jersey shore. Maybe you should take a ride up here sometime.

Posted by Eric | July 15, 2009 3:19 PM Ed:

I have no comment regarding the accuracy of the forecast - only time will tell, however, my question is: Why is this prediction made? BAsed on what atmospheric conditions does Joe feel the storm track will be more coastal, it will be colder etc....Simply a winter following a cooler than average summer doesn't make a cold winter a definite.

Posted by Ed | July 15, 2009 3:03 PM Mark Vogan:

I don't care what anyone says, Jesse. There has been a heck of a lot of hours, days, weeks even years put into this forecast and I believe Joe has done a wonderful job here with this forecast. It takes someone like Joe, a brilliant meteorologist to raise the bar which he always does when it comes to reading the "Big Picture" to make a forecast like this. Ironically I issued my forecast in June and it's very similar to what Joe's is... So we must be reading off the same page. People don't understand the work and time involved with this, never mind the usual day to day weather and the knowledge this man has and remembrance of past years, past weather and the patterns that have evolved. I look forward to seeing what happens.

Posted by Mark Vogan | July 15, 2009 2:27 PM Thomas F. Giella:

It looks like and El Nino winter pattern to me. We are overdue for a strong El Nino, the last being in 1997-1998.

Posted by Thomas F. Giella | July 15, 2009 11:30 AM Dave:

I think with current pattern we've been seeing, that this winter predictions is very likley to occur. Provided that the current pattern does not break down and make a turn for the worse, meaning, a snowless winter for portions of the NE. So far this Summer has been unusually cool, I have only once to run the a/c for a few hours when the humid, warm air got to me, other then that it has been cool and dry. Night time temps having a chill in the air where long pants and a light jacket is needed.

For winter 09-10, I think we are due for a snowy winter, none of this 1-3" increments we've experienced the last 2-3 winters. Even though i got close to 50" last winter, it took adding up all the small disturbances to achieve 50" of snowfall for the season, and places east of me like I95 corridor got like only 20" for the season. I was kinda shocked to see JB giving out an early prediction, but he did a good job calling last years winter, with it being cold in my location. I say bring the massive snow storms on! I've been waiting for big time snows for a long time now. The 02-03 was a great year for snow, same goes for 95-96. I wasn't around for the 60's as JB used for an analog year, but if it was snowy then I welcome a repeat.

Posted by Dave | July 15, 2009 11:17 AM Matt:

Jess:

Since you seem like the person who hypes the weather the least (a true scientists)...I thought this might make it on your blog. Henry and Joe are just winter lovers/hypers. I saw this in a New York paper last December.

A TOUGH WINTER AHEAD?

The absurdity of winter weather hype along the East Coast of the United States

Winter in the Western, Midwestern, and northern New England regions of the United States needs no headline to announce its arrival. Folks who live in these regions know how to prepare for the long and severe winters that come with living in a northerly or high altitude location. Each winter they meet the cold season with little fanfare or hype. If you live in a place like Williston, North Dakota or Green Bay, Wisconsin…you don’t need the TV weatherman to tell you a cold front is coming when your walking down the street and the wind chill is - 45 F below zero. Folks living in the mountains of the Western United States… don’t need to be told what to do when it snows, you learn quick in places like Soda Springs, California where they get 470-inches of snow each winter, or in Alta, Utah where 516-inches of snow piles up in most winters.

The meaning and reality of the word “winter”, is far different along the East Coast of the United States. We shout from the rooftops when it’s 30 F in Central Park or two whole inches of snow falls in DC. From the Tri-State area (NYC/NJ/CT) southward….the Eastern Seaboard does not have a winter in the Midwestern or northern sense of the word - only a season of cool weather with sporadic snow that lasts a few months on average. Although there is the occasional respectable snowstorm and bouts of subfreezing weather…winters along the East Coast are short and mild compared to the Western and far northern United States. Of course, once you get as far south as North Carolina on the East Coast…real winter generally just fades away. The long, hot summers are the dominant climatic feature of the East Coast south of Massachusetts.

However, each fall, around early November… the comical pump-up to winter begins in the I-95 states. Time and time again, East Coast weathercasters warn, “snow is not far off“ (really? it’s 65 F outside now) …or “snow has now been reported at Mount Washington, NH” (yea, that tends to happen at 7000 feet). By December the machine is in full swing - each broadcast the viewer is bombarded with “its sunny, but boy is it cold” (44 F cold? they would laugh at that in Duluth)…or the evening weathercaster announces “there is the threat of snow in the 8-day forecast” (as if we need to plan stock-up with supplies for a few inches of snow that will melt in two days),….or an oldie but a goodie is that file video of a snowstorm we had 7 years ago (or 17 years ago).

By December, the terse, non-stop rhetoric, reaches an almost comical pitch: If there is no threat of snow in the big cities along the East Coast (which happens most often)….we are then even warned about the cold - as if that the next cold front coming down from Canada into the upper Midwest will end all life as we know it on the East Coast. Somehow though, … that 20 below zero temperature they show us up in Minnesota … becomes 15 F in Indiana….25 F in Ohio,… and finally 35 F in Maryland or Connecticut. All we really needed was an extra scarf or a heavier coat. In a few days, it’s 45 F again.

Predictably, by mid winter, most folks in the I-95 states from Virginia to the Tri-State area…have long since stopped paying any attention to the evening weathercast beyond 48 hours. As each hyped bout of pathetic wintry weather comes and disappointingly departs…even the folks who love an occasional good snowstorm have lost interest. It can be a bit embarrassing when your local TV station in Baltimore or Long Island tells you in a frantic voice to get prepared for 2-inches of snow …when you see folks in Denver or Cleveland digging out from 2-feet of snow. The final chapter of this absurd East Coast tale comes to an end in mid March: local weathercasters (especially the ones who live for the 90-days of winter on the East Coast) grumble with comments like “we got off easy this year, wait till next year”. Year in, year out, it’s the same story.

For the millions who live in the Atlantic States… the TV weatherman has been reduced to a silly personality with a warped sense of climatological averages. Winter weather is a point of comical conversation for East Coast residents - a joke, a myth, something playful in a serious world. Sure, there is the occasional valid warning that it may snow once in a while, there may even be a week when the daily high temperature is stuck below freezing…but winter is fleeting along the Atlantic Coast of the United States south of Boston.

It takes awhile for a relocated Midwesterner to understand that winter along the East Coast is really a state of mind…not a real season. A true winter landscape… with huge snow drifts…ice hanging from the eaves…bitter cold, and people bundled up in parkas and mittens, is really what we romance winter to be. In the end, despite the best attempts by the gods of media, marketing, and meteorology…. residents along the East Coast never really pay much attention to winter…only images of winter. The hype of winter on the East Coast is really about marketing and media.

But oh how they hype that winter from DC to the Connecticut suburbs of NYC….

Posted by Matt | July 15, 2009 10:54 AM Mike Krysak:

Is there any scenario that you can envision (La Nina, El Nino, NAO etc.) whereby Central and Southern Texas can get out of the current horrible drought situation. I can understand your prediction for the '09-'10 winter given the moderate El Nino developing but that scenario gives California its winter rains but again the energy leap frogs the very dry Southern Plains and places the precipiation on the drenched East Coast by developing systems in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Unless a major tropical system or three head for the Central and Southern Texas coasts early this fall, your winter prediction is bad news for the Southern Plains, which is in spite of the climatology forecasts now presented by the NWS for drought abatement here.

As a former meterology major at St. Louis U, I've been following weather patterns very closely since the 1960's. In addition, I've worked in the commercial weather forecasting business back in the 80s. If my memory serves me correctly, it seems that the only time that Central & Sothern Texas ever gets an extended period of heavy precipitation is when the remaining part of the lower 48 is experiencing collectively benign weather. Am I correct in my assessment?

Posted by Mike Krysak | July 15, 2009 10:32 AM Charlie:

Well - it's 'noreaster-city' with this prediction as well. Where did my prozac go...........

Posted by Charlie | July 15, 2009 10:23 AM Curt McCormick:

Well...however it turns out, right or wrong, this is a well thought out "true forecast" instead of just a probability outlook. I appreciate the work that went into this, and at least everyone knows where Accuweather stands. You guys are light years ahead of others in terms of "putting it out there." Thanks for this forecast. (And, living near DC, my three boys would be thrilled if this occurs!)

Posted by Curt McCormick | July 15, 2009 10:05 AM