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Biggest snow storm of the year to hit East, me

By Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior weather editor

Published Mar 12, 2017 10:57 PM EST | Updated Mar 12, 2017 10:57 PM EST

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A large Nor'easter snow storm, perhaps the largest of the year, is on the way for the Northeast. Here in State College, Pa, we're looking at a foot or more of snow being a possibility. That's interesting because it's hard to get a big snow here. Here's AccuWeather's official forecast map, as of Sunday evening:

Zoomed in NE March 12

And this is from the National Weather Service:

NWS NDFD Forecast Snowfall 3/12
NOAA

This may end up kind of like the Blizzard of 2016, or the Blizzard of 2010, but further north and east. That's the last big storm the East Coast had. This could get really interesting; the NESIS snow page says the Northeast hasn't had a "Crippling" or "Extreme" snow storm outside of 2016. Before that, you go back to 2003 or 2005 (which was a New England storm).

NESIS Top 10 Snow Storms

Here are some stats for other major cities in the path of the storm:

Baltimore, MD:

  • Top 1-Day Snow: 25.5" (2016)

  • Since 2000: 15" (2009)

  • Top 10 >15.5"

Washington, DC:

  • Top 1-Day Snow: 21" (1922)

  • Since 2000: 15" (2009)

  • Top 10 > 12.0"

Harrisburg, PA:

  • Top 1-Day Snow: 26.4" (2016)

  • Since 2000: 26.4" (2016)

  • Top 10 > 13.1"

Philadelphia, PA

  • Top 1-Day Snow: 27.6" (1996)

  • Since 2000: 22.5" (2009)

  • Top 10 > 13.9"

New York, NY:

  • Top 1-Day Snow: 27.3" (2016)

  • Since 2000: 27.3" (2016)

  • Top 10 > 13.5"

State College, PA:

  • Top 1-Day Snow: 26.6 (1994)

  • Since 2000: 14.0" (2003)

  • Top 10 > 15.1"

As I said, it's hard to get big snows here in Central Pa. We're often too far west for nor'easters, and too far east for lake-effect snow. In fact in State College, there have only been three storms with more than a foot of snow since 2000, and the most snow we've seen on one day from a storm in that time period is only 14 inches! (If you go back to 1994 though, you'll find our maximum 1-day total of 26.6 inches, according to William Schmitz of the Southeast Regional Climate Center. So how much will we get?

SREF Plumes Philipsburg, PA 3/12
NOAA

As you can see from the chart above, the SREF Plumes for snowfall today (Means as of 15Z) say that State College

will

have the biggest storm since 2000, and 5 of 27 models think it could exceed our all-time maximum of 26.6 inches -- if it all falls in one day. Most of it probably will, though the 24-hours may be split across multiple meteorological observing days (that complicates the statistics).

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WeatherMatrix
Jesse Ferrell
AccuWeather Meteorologist and Social Media Manager Jesse Ferrell covers extreme weather and the intersection of meteorology and social media.
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