Hype spread across the Operations Floor this weekend as more models came into agreement, saying a Nor'easter is to affect at least the farthest reaches of the mid-Atlantic coasts this week, if not farther inland. This is one of those situations where it could be a real spoiler for travel and outside activity this holiday week -- or it could linger off the coast and nobody will notice. Complicating factors are twin blocking high pressure systems and warm sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream.

What we know right now is that it's likely a low pressure system will form off the coast of Georgia today, gradually bringing high winds, high surf and heavy rain to the Southeast coast.

I can't promise day-to-day updates, but stay tuned to our Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO) and Breaking Weather News Page for more information. Also consult our other bloggers (list at left/top), especially Frank Strait (PREMIUM | PRO), who has been keeping a close eye on the models.

What about farther north and closer to Thanksgiving Day? AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi (PRO) says in his blog this morning:

Here's what the Forecast Models [JessePedia] are saying:

The favored short-term model (NMM) forms a low pressure system off the coast of Georgia and keeps it there all week, once trying to make landfall on the Georgia coast. It brings over 5 inches of rain to eastern South Carolina with over 2 inches surrounding that, by Thanksgiving day. In this scenario, the mid-Atlantic is spared.

The DGEX (which starts at 84 hours) acknowledges a small low pressure off the coast of Georgia on Thanksgiving Day but then dissipates it. The COAMPS forms a weak low which it brings it onshore near Wilmington on Thanksgiving Day, spreading heavy rain into eastern North Carolina. The JMA forms it off the Southeast coast, clips Hatteras, but misses Nantucket, MA.

The Canadian forms two low pressures initially (see above), then merges them and moves them up the coast and the coastal Carolinas get doused with 2-5 inches of rain. The NOGAPS (Navy Model) also favors the two-low solution, then merges them over Cape Hatteras and sends the storm out to sea.

And then there's the GFS, who has predicted this on and off for nearly two weeks. With the disclaimer that this data is from the "weird" 6Z run, right now it forms a weak low off the Southeast coast, then moves it up the coast, temporarily dissipating it over Cape Hatteras then making it into a real Nor'easter for New England. The big story again is the rain, with well over 10 inches falling in SE NC and NW SC.

An ATCF Model Spread [JessePedia] would come in handy now but it doesn't appear that the NHC is running one.

Here's what our official forecast says, overlaid onto Gulf Stream Sea Surface Temperatures. We believe the storm will do a loop off the South Carolina coast mid-week, then clip Hatteras and head towards the New England coast by Friday.

*This disturbance is likely what the GFS hyped as a Florida landfall 10 days ago. It's interesting, this time last year we were talking about a very similar (but more powerful) situation where a tropical system combined with a low pressure system and ran up the coast.

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