5 Different 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts

As you may recall, we issued our 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast last month. As of today, Colorado State University issued their updated forecast [PDF], so (in the interest of full disclosure) there are now a total of five sources that have issued forecasts for this season. Although the range is fairly large, the average of the numbers points to a normal season for Hurricanes, with a slightly-above-average number of named storms. Here's how it breaks down. (All of these are from March / April 2009 except WSI which was December 2008).

SOURCES: AccuWeather.com | CSU | TSR | WRC | WSI

Of course, those numbers are great for meteorologists, but the public is worried about landfalling storms, mainly in the U.S. Here's what the three providers who predict landfalls said:

AccuWeather.com: "4 Named Storms will affect the United States - 3 Hurricanes, including one Major Hurricane. storms may be more likely to form in the Atlantic Basin closer to the coast and the possibility of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. cannot be ruled out." We also issued this graphic:

CSU:- "Entire U.S. coastline - 54% (average for last century is 52%)" - "U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 32% (average for last century is 31%)" - "Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 31% (average for last century is 30%)"

WRC: "There will be 3 Named Storm U.S. landfalls this season. The Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf coast from Louisiana to Alabama has a 70% chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane landfall."

Congrats to all these folks for having the meteorological chutzpa to issue these forecasts, especially the landfall forecasts, instead of sticking their heads in the sand. New discoveries in science weren't made by assuming that they couldn't be possible.

*ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of the "strength" of hurricane season.