2007-2008 Winter Forecast, Folklore Style

You felt that chill this week, I know you did (if you're north of 40 latitude). You know it's coming. Fall is almost here, and it will be quickly replaced by winter. Already people are bugging me and Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) about the Winter 2008 Forecast, which will be issued by AccuWeather.com in mid-October.

The Farmer's Almanac says the East is in for a harsh winter, according to the Associated Press. In contrast the *Old* Farmer's Almanac says that here in Central Pennsylvania, we'll have heavy snow this winter but overall it will be the warmest year in the last century.

I've actually met the Old Farmer, if you can believe that, but his identity must remain a mystery for now, because he's a little embarrassed about last year's prediction, which was the worst in their 100-year history. They also say that the last digit of the year "8" will make next year a crazy year, citing famous storms. I can almost guarantee that's not correct and I suspect if you check any other numbered year you can find unusual storms too.

Speaking of folklore... we've all heard the sayings about various activities in nature that predict the coming winter, but is there really anything to them? Can a nutty squirrel beat our own weather nut Joe Bastardi ?

I did a little research and I've found that, while some animal wisdom is probably accurate, long-range seasonal predictions probably aren't.

My first source for this information was an item from my bookshelf at home called "Weather Wisdom: Facts and Folklore of Weather Forecasting" by Albert Lee, which I received as a gift some years ago. Yes, I know, perish the thought of your cyber-friend here reading something not electronic, but in some cases when you're looking at history, books can be more accurate. Nonetheless I'm sure you were surprised to catch me "reading on the job" this morning on The J-CAM:

The text was originally written in 1942 and republished in 1976 before the paperback edition I own came out in 1990, so this wasn't the most up-to-date study on the subject, and it wasn't done from the ultra-modern hi-tech position that you're used to hearing me pontificate from. Still, it offered some interesting intuition. The "seasonal" weather lore was split apart from the "animal and vegetable myths" section of the book due to its controversial nature.

A second source was this NASA page quoting Eric Sloane, author of "Folklore of American Weather" oddly enough also written in 1976. Other sources include an uncredited page on the weather section of the CBS6 site.

COULD THICKER COATS AND SKINS FORSEE A COLDER WINTER?

One of the most common folklore tales have to do with thicker coats on animals, or thicker skins on vegetables, namely onions. Even Lee dismisses most of these as "desperate attempts by farmers to predict crop seasons."

He does quote a climatologist who promotes the principle of continuity, which dictates that, more often than not, a cooler summer would be followed by an equally cooler winter, meaning that these natural wonders aren't predicting but rather just stating the current conditions. Sloane disagrees, saying that a wet, warm summer would naturally be followed by a winter which is less wet and cool. I have to say that forecasting based on "it will keep doing this" or "it will do the opposite" doesn't sound too accurate.

THE NOT-SO-ELUSIVE WOLLY WORM / BEAR

Lee's book also talked about the little critter commonly seen this time of year here in the East - the woolly worm, as we called them in North Carolina (you Yankees call him wooly bears, I don't know why). Supposedly this worm's 13 segments correspond to winter temperatures (brown for warm and black for cold).* Like all larva, the wooly worm turns into a moth (the Isabella Tiger) in the Spring, according to WikiPedia, which busts the forecasting myth:

However, this site says"Scientists argue that the varying colors are caused by temperature levels and, possibly, moisture, during the early days of their life." So, the banding may still be weather-related.

I would agree, when I was a youth in NC, I also invalidated this myth based on the fact that I'd seen many different banded woolies in a few days time. (Or maybe they are like weather forecasters, they all say something different and none are right! Bada-bing!)

I just happened to see one of these little buggers last night and he predicted a cold start and end to the winter, with abundant warmth in-between:

Still, this doesn't stop several wooly worm festivals, including one in nearby Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, at which I may put in an appearance next month.

WHAT ABOUT THOSE SQUIRRELS AND THEIR NUTS?

People say that, if squirrels are frantically squirreling more nuts away than usual, they are doing so because they have forecast a harsh winter. Lee doesn't mention this common piece of folklore in this book, but Eric says that there is not truth to this, and CBS6 agrees. The folklore probably came into being after an unusually robust nut season which happened to be followed by a bad winter.

SO WHAT IS TRUE, FOR SURE?

There are quite a few signs that nature gives us that are definitely weather-related, but not necessarily related to fall, winter, or long-term forecasting. Here is one example of animal, vegetable and mineral sayings that are accurate (there are many more!):

Eric Sloane's book reports:

The Asheville Citizen Times says:

And Albert Lee's book explains:

*In general these appear to be the rules, though some folklore goes even further. As an example, you can look at last year's winner of the Banner Elk contest, and his forecast.

Report a Typo