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    Changes Afoot, Eventually.

    10/09/2013, 7:33:15 PM

    Well, I don't have time to put a video together as my hands have been full today with asking reporter questions about our winter forecast in between regular duties. As I mentioned before, I'm leaving town for vacation tomorrow, so this will be the last post for a while. So, here's what to watch while I'm gone.

    The nutshell version of our winter forecast: If you like snow and you live in the Southeast, you're not going to like it. You'll find it linked on the homepage of AccuWeather.com right now if you really want to see it!

    This storm off of Delmarva right now is going to remain a pest for a while. The weather pattern is blocked as the storm is sitting south of an upper ridge over Quebec. That's going to keep it rather murky and generally lousy along the Mid-Atlantic coast the rest of the week and for this weekend, too. I wish I had better news for both you and for me ... I have to drive in the rain through Virginia tomorrow. That's no fun. The good news I have is that between there and the Mississippi River it looks like a nice and warm weekend. Well, maybe it's a little too warm for October but don't complain too much. In fact, this warm and dry spell should last into the first part of next week. The GFS says a front will move in from the west sooner but I don't believe it. Farther east, early next week we should see the pesky storm pull away from the Mid-Atlantic slowly. Hopefully by Tuesday the sun is out again but don't count on it because it might take longer.

    On the other side of the Mississippi, we're still on for some severe weather tomorrow night in the panhandles and maybe the Texas South Plains but otherwise this first storm will pass by to the north. Look for some lovely West Texas wind and blowing dust for a while Thursday night as well. The trailing front will still be stuck over Oklahoma and West Texas on Friday but it's going to have no moisture nor upper support to work with. Moisture will be returning into Texas with return flow already getting underway, though. So, by Saturday we should see some spotty storms around and they will stay with us through the weekend. Look for the front to retreat to the north as a warm front ahead of the next storm moving in on Sunday. Then early next week that storm moves by to the north and there's a chance we see more widespread severe weather with a cool front trailing that storm early next week.

    That front will head east into the Southeast at a slow but steady pace. The GFS says by Thursday it will interfere with my vacation plans but the more trustworthy Euro is about a day slower and I choose to believe that. First, I want it to be right and second I more objectively think it will be given the way the weather pattern is setting up late next week. The NAO is going strongly negative while it looks as though the PNA is going positive. If this were January I'd have y'all on snowstorm alert but it's October instead and there's very warm and humid air ahead of the front, so I have y'all on severe thunderstorm alert instead.

    Assuming this front doesn't get stuck along the East Coast next week, and it might if the ridge over the Atlantic is muscular enough, a much cooler air mass will settle in to most of the South next weekend. The exception to that might be Florida. If that front doesn't get into Central or South Florida, there's no good chance for rain for a very long time. But, we're heading into a drier time of the year down there, so it should not be a huge surprise.

    Farther west, this front may still be stuck over Deep South Texas on Friday. So it may be wet in South Texas for a while as this front slowly grinds its way southward.

    Next weekend actually looks pretty chilly at this point for areas that do see the colder air, and possibly even frosty at night into parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee and especially Kentucky. The Euro looks particularly cold, even worse than the GFS. The real cold looks short-lived but the warmup when I get back to town the following week looks gradual.

    In the tropics we have two things to beware of. Narda is not one of them despite the system valiantly holding on as a tropical cyclone. The cluster of storms south of the Mexican Riviera most likely will become Octave in a day or so and most likely will end up near southern Baja California by Monday. Perhaps some of that moisture gets pulled into Texas next week as that second storm moves in from the northwest. If said moisture gets caught up in the slow moving front in South Texas next week then we might be playing "Texas Flood".

    In the Atlantic, we have a wave in the Caribbean that I think is nothing to worry about. The feature out over the eastern Atlantic around 10 north, 32 west as I write this is more of a concern. It refuses to gain latitude so it's starting to look like more of a worry at least for the Leeward Islands. It might get close anyway. The longer it stays south, then the better the chances it affects the islands. It looks to me like whatever remains of the storm now near the East Coast will eventually turn it north later next week. Hopefully that also steers it east of Bermuda but Bermudians should watch it nonetheless. The GFS says eventually this thing will go to Newfoundland, I doubt that.

    If we get one more wave in the train behind that one ... well, let's worry about how the weather pattern may favor something close to the East Coast when I get back from vacation ... when I get back from vacation. It just better not be snowing here next Monday, I've had enough of October snow up here in recent years. It's not fun to bike in the snow.

    Well that will do it for now. I'll tell y'all in advance that posts may be spotty when I return week after next. I have a dentist appointment, I'll be getting used to a new dog in the house that I have inherited (the cats are thrilled about this idea), and there's a lot to do outside of regular duties as well. That's because this is a working vacation and I'll be at the NWA conference in Charleston five of the days I'm down there. When I get back, I'll be working on summaries of the talks for my fellow forecasters here at AccuWeather. It will be a lot of work, but it's going to be fun work! Plus, I do get some downtime for a while as well.

    So, that being said I bid you adieu, to quote Dr. Joe Sobel. Oh, and if you're a thief planning to jack me up while I'm out of town, I have friends feeding my cats twice a day, the landlord of the nearby duplexes passes through the neighborhood three or four times a day, and the police station is a mile away and I see a lawman passing through a couple of times a day and night, too. I come to a complete stop at the stop signs and everything. Your odds are not good Mr. Thug.

    That's it, y'all! As always, be good and I'll see you again roughly a week from Wednesday.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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