The new updated ECMWF (European model) seasonal forecast for the summer (June/July/August) was just released, and below is my interpretation of what it predicts.
Keep in mind this is not our forecast. We will issue the AccuWeather.com summer forecast for Canada sometime in May.
In addition to the ECMWF model, we also have the experimental NMME ensemble model forecast for the summer below, which takes into account several long range U.S. models, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.
NMME temperature anomaly forecast for summer 2013 in degrees C.
NMME precipitation anomaly forecast for summer 2013
As you can see, the NMME is indicating widespread warmer-than-normal temperatures for the summer and more drier compared to wetter areas. Keep in mind, the skill level with the precipitation anomaly forecast is always lower compared to the temperature forecast. Precipitation is much more localized in the warm months due to the more convective (showery/thunderstorm) nature of the precipitation.
I will post an update on the upcoming weather situation for southern/eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late Wednesday night and/or Thursday/Thursday night. The combination of low-level cold air running into a moist frontal boundary will likely lead to widespread sleet/ice and possibly some snow.
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Frost and freeze across parts of eastern Canada and the interior Northeast U.S. later this week, while the West gets into another warm/dry spell this weekend and into early next week.
An update on clues to the pattern through the second week of October.
Latest snowfall totals from Alberta and a look at the potential for damaging thunderstorms over southern Ontario later Wednesday.
Update for the upcoming snow and cold headed for the Prairies.
Snow and cold coming for the Rockies into the western prairies next week.
More cold and possible snow for the Rockies and Prairies next week and a look at the long range into early October.