The new updated ECMWF (European model) seasonal forecast for the summer (June/July/August) was just released, and below is my interpretation of what it predicts.
Keep in mind this is not our forecast. We will issue the AccuWeather.com summer forecast for Canada sometime in May.
In addition to the ECMWF model, we also have the experimental NMME ensemble model forecast for the summer below, which takes into account several long range U.S. models, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.
NMME temperature anomaly forecast for summer 2013 in degrees C.
NMME precipitation anomaly forecast for summer 2013
As you can see, the NMME is indicating widespread warmer-than-normal temperatures for the summer and more drier compared to wetter areas. Keep in mind, the skill level with the precipitation anomaly forecast is always lower compared to the temperature forecast. Precipitation is much more localized in the warm months due to the more convective (showery/thunderstorm) nature of the precipitation.
I will post an update on the upcoming weather situation for southern/eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late Wednesday night and/or Thursday/Thursday night. The combination of low-level cold air running into a moist frontal boundary will likely lead to widespread sleet/ice and possibly some snow.
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Keep the pools open! Warmth to prevail in the East for the next few weeks.
Warm end to August in the East and far West, while the southern Prairies get some early season chill.
Latest clues to the weekly patterns through mid-September.
A look at what the fall may offer in terms of the overall weather pattern across Canada.
An update on the clues to the long range weather pattern into early September.
Potential for significant rain in the western Prairies then severe thunderstorms in the eastern Prairies. Latest clues to the long range.