What the Latest Forecast Models Say About the Upcoming Summer

The new updated ECMWF (European model) seasonal forecast for the summer (June/July/August) was just released, and below is my interpretation of what it predicts. Keep in mind this is not our forecast. We will issue the AccuWeather.com summer forecast for Canada sometime in May.

In addition to the ECMWF model, we also have the experimental NMME ensemble model forecast for the summer below, which takes into account several long range U.S. models, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

As you can see, the NMME is indicating widespread warmer-than-normal temperatures for the summer and more drier compared to wetter areas. Keep in mind, the skill level with the precipitation anomaly forecast is always lower compared to the temperature forecast. Precipitation is much more localized in the warm months due to the more convective (showery/thunderstorm) nature of the precipitation.

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I will post an update on the upcoming weather situation for southern/eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late Wednesday night and/or Thursday/Thursday night. The combination of low-level cold air running into a moist frontal boundary will likely lead to widespread sleet/ice and possibly some snow.

You can also follow me on twitter at @BrettAWX

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