Weekend Snow for Southwestern BC
As I mentioned yesterday, a system now up across the Yukon will dive southward tonight and push slowly across southern BC over the weekend.
Looks like the precipitation will come in at least two waves, with the first on Saturday and another sometime Sunday.
Fairly confident that the Vancouver area will see snow on Saturday, but there are more uncertainty for Sunday in regards to how much precipitation actually falls and the type.
For snow lovers, this will not be a major producer, but the track of the system from the northwest does favor snow over rain for many as it allows the cold air supply to be maintained.
The European model is the most ambitious with the snow and actually predicts around 8 to 10 cm for Vancouver, while other models are closer to 5 cm.
Based on everything that I have looked at here is my snow forecast for the weekend..
Vancouver, BC.....5-8 cm Victoria, BC....trace snow, mostly rain Abbotsford, BC......2-5 cm Nanaimo, BC...5-8 cm Port Alberni, BC....10-15 cm
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Other random thoughts.......
1. Very cold pattern setting up next week from the Prairies through Quebec.
2. Seasonably cold for Atlantic Canada next week with some coastal storm threats.
3. I do not see any major precipitation events through next week for much of the Prairies and into Ontario as the mean pattern will direct most of the storms and heavier precipitation farther to the south and east. However, there will likely be a persistent, weak upslope flow into southwestern Alberta next week which will likely result in some accumulating snow from time to time.
4. Potentially good news for drought stricken California starting the middle of next week and the following week as it looks like the southern branch of the jet stream strengthens over the Pacific and may direct a series of moist storms into the state. This would be a major shift from what the pattern has been like much of the winter.
5. The latest long range ECMWF weeklies show cold dominating well into March from the central Prairies through Quebec as the Arctic Oscillation looks to be more negative, forcing the cold farther south.
6. I am getting more confident that El Nino will indeed make a return by the Fall, though I still think it will be more of a weak to moderate El Nino rather than a strong one.
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I will be working on the Canada Spring forecast later today and should have it posted within a week.
Have a great and safe weekend and congratulations to Team Canada. They played a tremendous defensive game today and deserved the victory over our Team USA. Both goalies were very sharp.
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