I just got a look at the latest September El Nino Southern Oscillation forecast model plume forecasts from IRI and the consensus is still for a weak El Nino through the winter, but the overall trend since the August forecasts has been weaker with the El Nino which makes sense based on current observations. El Nino 2012 has had a tough time getting going, and chances are high now that this phase will be weak at best this winter. More on the weak El Nino climatology for Canada on the next blog.
Latest weekly ECMWF long-range forecast model output...........
Tornado threat into Tuesday from southeastern Saskatchewan to northwest Ontario.
Latest weekly clues to the long range forecast through mid-August.
Major storm for the Prairies early next week could bring heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms.
Severe thunderstorm threat later Thursday and a general look at the upcoming weather pattern.
Latest long-range update and a look at global ocean temperatures.
Pattern change will bring significant rainfall opportunity for Alberta Thursday night and Friday.