I just got a look at the latest September El Nino Southern Oscillation forecast model plume forecasts from IRI and the consensus is still for a weak El Nino through the winter, but the overall trend since the August forecasts has been weaker with the El Nino which makes sense based on current observations. El Nino 2012 has had a tough time getting going, and chances are high now that this phase will be weak at best this winter. More on the weak El Nino climatology for Canada on the next blog.
Latest weekly ECMWF long-range forecast model output...........
Keep the pools open! Warmth to prevail in the East for the next few weeks.
Warm end to August in the East and far West, while the southern Prairies get some early season chill.
Latest clues to the weekly patterns through mid-September.
A look at what the fall may offer in terms of the overall weather pattern across Canada.
An update on the clues to the long range weather pattern into early September.
Potential for significant rain in the western Prairies then severe thunderstorms in the eastern Prairies. Latest clues to the long range.