Taste of spring, storm break await northeastern US by late this week
A taste of spring is in store for the northeastern U.S. for the final week of March while the storm-battered region gets a break from nor'easters for several days.
"Much of the storm-weary Northeast may have a real taste of spring later this week," according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.
Even if temperatures just approach average for the end of March, it is likely to feel quite warm, compared to the weather of recent weeks with its snow, cold rain, clouds and/or gusty winds.
A snowfall coats blooming crocuses, Wednesday, March 7, 2018, in New York City. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan)
For example, the average high temperature in Philadelphia during late March is in the upper 50s Fahrenheit. Temperatures are forecast to peak above this level later in the week.
Similar temperatures, relative to average, are expected elsewhere along the I-95 corridor of the Northeast. Average highs at the end of March climb to near 50 in Boston, the middle 50s in New York City and Pittsburgh and the lower 60s in Washington, D.C.
Ultimately, how warm it feels during the day will depend on the amount of sunshine as is often the case during March. The sun is as strong now as it is during the middle of September.
As long as winds are not very strong or a breeze is not blowing off a cold water source, it should feel comfortable from the late morning through the afternoon hours late in the week.
The pattern should allow the remaining snowcover to melt, except in the shady side of the mountains, where most ski resorts are located.
What's behind the recent cold and stormy weather?
A blocking pattern in the jet stream trapped cold air over southeastern Canada and the northeastern United States during much of March. As storms moved in from the west and south and encountered the cold air in place, they brought snow and strengthened.
During this week, the pattern will change just enough to cause storminess to shift well out to sea in the Atlantic and to the middle part of the nation. However, in between, a wedge of dry air is likely to set up shop over the Appalachians and along much of the Atlantic seaboard for several days during the first half of the new week.
"The storm off the Atlantic coast and chilly air from southeastern Canada will probably delay warming in much of the East during the first part of the week," Abrams said.
"However, this chilly air is likely to shift offshore later in the week and allow a period of warmth before the next push of cooler air arrives from the northwest," Abrams said.
As the door opens for the milder weather to arrive later in the week, rain may also spread across the East and put a damper on some anticipated outdoor activities.
Fewer big storms, but more cold weather ahead for the Northeast
The upcoming pattern may be somewhat of a spring tease.
People may not want to rush into temperature-sensitive spring projects such as concrete work, outdoor painting and gardening.
"Toward the end of the month and into the first part of April, colder air is likely to move back in," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
The route the cold air takes, from central Canada to the Midwest and then the Northeast, may suggest that the pattern that delivered the four nor'easters in three weeks has ended.
During much of March, cold air pushed southward from eastern Canada and held its ground as storms approached. This blocking pattern effectively caused storms to slow down and strengthen along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.
If the anchor for the cold air sets up over central Canada rather than Greenland during early April, storms that move into the Northeast may be less intense and not as long-lasting. This would increase the chance for rain over snow, especially in the Interstate-95 corridor.
During the early-April pattern, the lowest temperatures, relative to average, will be centered on the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to perhaps the central and northern Appalachians.
The upcoming pattern is likely to translate to some hard freezes and wintry precipitation for this zone and perhaps some frost over parts of the interior Southeast.
On sunny days in the pattern, daytime temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard may still recover to near average on at least some days during early April. The air mass will reveal its cold identity each night, however.
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