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Storm to renew severe weather, flooding risk in central US by midweek

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Feb 26, 2018 4:33 PM EDT | Updated Jul 1, 2019 5:13 PM EDT

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A new storm is poised to bring another round of severe thunderstorms and deliver more rain to flood-prone areas of the central United States into Thursday.

Following a break of dry weather, a new storm will spring up and begin producing downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms from central Texas to central Arkansas and southern Tennessee as early as Tuesday night.

Stormy 2.27 AM

While widespread severe thunderstorms are not anticipated Tuesday night, storms in this sector may cause enough rain to cause new or aggravate existing flooding problems. A few storms may also produce damaging winds and hail.

On Wednesday the threat of severe weather is likely to ramp up significantly from northeastern Texas to much of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, western and middle Tennessee and northern Alabama.

Static Severe Wed 3pm

"The thunderstorms will carry the risk of flash flooding, wind gusts to 70 mph, large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.

Little Rock, Arkansas; Shreveport, Louisiana; Huntsville, Alabama; Tupelo, Mississippi; Dallas; and Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee, are among the cities that may be in the path of the storms or may have severe weather in their metro areas.

Farther north, a few storms from northeastern Oklahoma to central Illinois may be heavy and gusty as well on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

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There is the potential for severe thunderstorms to continue into Thursday from parts of the central Gulf coast to the Tennessee and Ohio valleys.

"If the storm manages to move slowly eastward rather than at a swift pace, then Thursday has the potential to be the big severe weather day instead of Wednesday in the South Central states," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Eric Leister.

The risk of flooding will continue over the South Central states and may reemerge in part of the Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday.

Static Flood Risk South Central Wed Thu

Regardless of the severity of the thunderstorms, there is the potential for 3-6 inches of rain to fall from the northeastern corner of Texas to eastern Tennessee and southeastern Kentucky. Much of that rain may fall in 36 hours.

Farther north, a separate area of heavy rain is possible from eastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri to southern Michigan, central and northern Ohio to western Pennsylvania.

Static Flood Risk Midwest Wed Nt Thu

Rainfall in this northern zone may average 1-3 inches over a 24- to 48-hour period. Many rivers in this area experienced major flooding in the past week. Some of the rivers are still at major flood stage this week, so any additional rain will add insult to injury. Some of the moisture will fall as snow during the last part of the storm. The snow may curtail some of the runoff.

In both areas, this is enough rain to renew the threat of flash and urban flooding and may add to existing river flooding in some cases. Rivers that may have already crested and are in recession into early Wednesday may see new rises and crests later in the week and this coming weekend.

Part of the same, slow-moving storm system will gain considerable strength and affect the Northeast states as well to close out this week.

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