River flooding may reemerge in central US after easing in hard-hit areas during March

Additional storms are likely to aggravate flooding problems in the short term and the long term over parts of the central United States this spring.

While a break from the relentless rain and flooding is anticipated during March, there are concerns early and later on.

How river flooding evolved in February

During the middle and latter part of February, surging temperatures combined with melting snow and rounds of drenching rain set into motion significant flooding from the Appalachians to the Ohio and Mississippi valleys.

Some locations received a month's worth of rain in a few days as well as a record amount of rainfall for the month of February.

At one point, every river from northern Illinois to southern Michigan and northern Ohio was above flood stage. Some rivers, including the St. Joseph and Kankakee, were still close to record stage during the last days of February.

Flooding occurred along the entire length of the Ohio River during the last couple of weeks of February with the worst conditions striking from near Cincinnati to the confluence of the Mississippi.

Flooding that occurred in portions of Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri might have been worse had it not been for prior dry conditions or ongoing dry conditions in head water locations of the major rivers.

High water table, storms to lead to flooding risk in short term

During early March, while storms will not be as potent as those which initiated the flooding in recent weeks, enough rain may fall on occasion to aggravate existing river flooding and lead to new episodes of flash and small stream flooding, according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

"There may still be two to three storms that may cause some trouble during the first part of March from near the Gulf coast to the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians," Pastelok said.

Break from repeated, heavy rain mid- to late-March expected

A pattern change is anticipated during the middle to latter part of March, where the northward flow of rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is limited or turned off.

"We expect a west to east flow of air from the Pacific coast to the Atlantic coast to dominate during much of the second half of March," Pastelok said.

In that sort of pattern, storms would move too fast to grab much moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and would not have enough time to drop much rain.

The break in the pattern may allow soggy areas, including farmland, to dry out. Small streams are likely to recede, but major rivers may take extra time to respond and fall below flood stage.

Rounds of heavy rain, flooding may return in April

The pattern is likely to change again during April.

"During April, we expect large complexes of thunderstorms to develop over portions of the Plains and migrate eastward across parts of the Mississippi Valley," Pastelok said.

"We cannot say exactly where each of these will track this far out, but where they overlap and repeat, some locations in the Central states may face a new round of flooding ranging from small streams and urban areas to portions of the major rivers."

The risk of flooding would accompany the potential for severe thunderstorms.

Soggy ground from repeating rainfall may delay plowing and planting operations in parts of the Midwest and South Central states during April.

As the weather pattern evolves, AccuWeather will continue to provide updates.

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