Blizzard Conditions in the Southeast, Quiet Elsewhere
The threat for damaging winds and heavy rainfall continues to be low as we look ahead to the upcoming week. Though there are a few features that could produce gusts to 80 kmh that we are watching.
The first feature is already underway across southeast Europe. A potent winter storm is centered in the Aegean Sea on Sunday bringing heavy snow to parts of Bulgaria into southwestern Ukraine.
As this storm moves into the Black Sea, the wind gusts will pick up across eastern Romania into southwestern Ukraine on Sunday. Gusts will reach 80kmh with gusts locally reaching 96 kmh. This will create blizzard like conditions with low visibility and drifting snow. Snow drifts could reach up to a meter. Monday as the storm center moves into southeastern Ukraine, the blizzard like conditions will move into central Ukraine where gusts will reach between 80 and 96 kmh. Once again low visibility and drifting snow will be the main threats with snow drifts up to a meter. Transportation from eastern Romania through central Ukraine will likely be shut down.
This potent winter storm will also be helping to produce Bora Winds. Bora winds are winds that come down the western slopes of the Dinaric Alps in the Balkans and race across the Adriatic Sea into eastern Italy. These Bora winds will already be in progress. Gusts will reach 80 kmh across eastern Italy and the western Balkans, while across the Adriatic Sea, gusts could reach up to 120 kmh. These winds will fuel sea-effect snow for the Apennines in Italy with showers at the coast. Some of the snow could get down to the coast. These winds combined with the snow will also create blizzard like conditions across some of the typical windy locations across the eastern slopes of the Apennines. Once again low visibility and drifting snow will be some of the impacts, combined with isolated tree damage, spotty power outages and minor coastal flooding. The Bora Winds will be decreasing throughout the day on Monday as the storm system moves across eastern Ukraine.
Following this major winter storm, the next feature we are watching will be towards the end of the upcoming week. A powerful cyclone will be tracking towards Iceland, but the cold front associated with it will move across the British Isles from Friday January 22nd into Saturday January 23rd.
This front, besides bringing periods of rain will also bring gusts to 80 kmh to Ireland, Scotland, Wales and northern England with locally higher gusts across the western coastal locations. Isolated tree damage, spotty power outages and minor coastal flooding are likely.
Lately there is potential for late next weekend for powerful storm system to track close enough to the northern British Isles that wind gusts to 80 kmh are likely across northern Ireland and northern Scotland.
There is potential for higher gusts towards 120 kmh, but confidence is low. Spotty tree damage along with widely scattered power outages are probable.
Over the upcoming week, there are three areas that will likely see isolated impacts: eastern Romania into central Ukraine, western Balkans to eastern Italy and then across Ireland, Wales, northern England and Scotland. Eastern Romania into central Ukraine will likely see major transportation disruptions while tree damage should be widely scattered. Western Balkans into eastern Italy and then across the western and northern Isles will see isolated tree damage, spotty power outages and some minor coastal flooding at high tide. If the Bora Winds are stronger across the western Balkans into eastern Italy, the impacts will become more scattered.
Looking into future, the weather pattern continues to remain void of any major storm that could produce damaging winds. Never the less things could change down the road, but at this time, Europe looks to remain quiet of wind storms.