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Wildfire risk to focus across the Southwest, Plains

A storm moving through the Rockies will lead to an increased risk of fires starting and rapidly spreading across portions of the Southwest and Plains into early week.

By Elizabeth Danco, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published May 17, 2026 11:19 AM EDT | Updated May 18, 2026 3:44 PM EDT

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The Hunggate Fire had burned more than 14,000 acres by May 15, leaving buildings and bridges as smoking ruins.

Conditions will be conducive for wildfires across parts of the Southwest and Plains as a storm moving out of the Rockies will help raise the risk into early week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

"The same storm that will bring along the risk for a severe weather outbreak early this week will also promote a very high wildfire risk across parts of the Southwest and Plains," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

This storm will bring gusty winds across the region, combined with low relative humidity and a lack of recent rainfall, setting the stage for favorable conditions for fires to start and spread rapidly.

Two areas will be at risk for wildfires through Monday. The first area focuses on portions of the Central Valley Desert in California, though the risk will be lower than on Sunday. Meanwhile, the main area extends from New Mexico to western Texas, into eastern Colorado, and western Kansas, where there is a very high fire risk from far eastern New Mexico to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas.

Individuals in both of these areas are urged to use caution when using any outdoor power equipment. Those planning outdoor activities that involve open flames are urged to take extra precautions and consider changing their plans due to the heightened fire risk.

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Gusty winds can fan flames from active fires, making firefighting efforts more difficult.

Relief for some by midweek

While much of the Southwest is expected to stay dry through the remainder of the week, some relief is in sight for portions of the Plains. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Tennessee and much of Mississippi.

While this stormy stretch will largely be beneficial, easing ongoing drought conditions and providing some help to firefighting efforts, lightning strikes from storms that have little rainfall could spark new fires.

Looking ahead into summer

As we head into the summer months, those across the Southwest and southern Plains hoping for long-term relief will have to wait as largely dry and hot conditions are expected through June and into July, keeping the fire risk high.

"Much like the storm that will pass through early this week, the general storm track can largely remain to the north, leaving dry and windy conditions as they pass by," adds Buckingham. "It won't be until appreciable monsoon moisture arrives this summer before we see a regional decrease in the fire risk."

More to Read:

Super El Niño could strain food and water supplies around the world
Wildfire safety tips from the experts
Dangerous storms loom for millions from Texas to the Northeast

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AccuWeather Weather Forecasts Wildfire risk to focus across the Southwest, Plains
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