Significant September nor’easter: Upcoming storm surge, beach erosion and power outages
The atmosphere is poised to deliver a damaging early-autumn nor’easter this week with tropical moisture unleashing heavy rain, coastal flooding, erosive surf and damaging winds from North Carolina to Maine.
AccuWeather’s Alex Sosnowski warns of wind gusts of 30-40 mph in addition to tides averaging 3-4 feet above normal pushing ocean water along the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic, leading to coastal flooding.
A storm is forecast to take shape and evolve into a powerful nor'easter in the Atlantic waters off the northeastern United States by this weekend. How strong the storm becomes and how close to the coast the storm gets will determine which areas are likely to experience the worst damage from storm surge, beach erosion and wind from North Carolina to Maine.
This will be a long-duration storm for many areas along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, with impacts beginning along the central Atlantic coast at midweek, spreading to New England on Friday and lasting through the weekend in some areas.
This image showing the eastern United States and the western Atlantic was captured on Tuesday afternoon, Sept. 22, 2026, and shows a brewing storm just offshore. The storm is forecast to evolve into a major nor'easter by the end of the week. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"Because waters are warm enough, thanks to the Gulf Stream off the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts, and the long duration the storm spends over these waters, it has the potential to acquire tropical characteristics and could become a tropical or subtropical storm this weekend," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
In the early stages of the storm setup, moisture in place will be wrung out of the atmosphere in the form of soaking rain from parts of Georgia to portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey through midweek.
The greatest risk of localized flash flooding through Wednesday evening will extend from the North Carolina mountains to West Virginia, but isolated urban flooding is possible anywhere in the rain zone.
A much more significant inundation problem will evolve from strengthening and persistent northeast winds along the coast from northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia northward as the storm intensifies offshore beginning on Wednesday.
Part of North Carolina, Virginia coasts face coastal inundation
Major flooding during multiple high-tide cycles is anticipated in southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina, beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday and into Friday.
The full moon's approach will boost tides in the absence of any storm. Considering both the moon and the storm, a coastal inundation of 3-4 feet is likely, with some areas experiencing a water level rise of 6 feet.
Some coastal roads will be inundated, especially at times of high tide. Vehicles could be swamped, and water could enter homes and businesses.
Some of the worst conditions will be on the mouths of the rivers that flow into the western part of the Chesapeake Bay, including the James, Rappahannock, Pamunkey and Potomac, where persistent 15- to 30-mph winds and gusts to 50 mph will prevent waters from escaping.
Moderate to major coastal flooding is likely over the lower portion of the Atlantic-facing shoreline of Delmarva, with minor to moderate coastal flooding of 2-3 feet from northern Delmarva to the southern half of New Jersey into Saturday.
In this mid-Atlantic area, winds will initially be from the east and northeast, pushing water toward the coast. Then, as the storm moves along and strengthens, winds should become more northerly and perhaps reduce water levels by this weekend.
Coastal storm impacts to spread from New Jersey to Maine
From northern New Jersey to Maine, the wind intensity and direction, storm surge and erosion will depend highly on the intensity of the storm and its track late this week and this weekend.
The storm's long duration across these areas will take a toll on the beaches, with wave action causing significant erosion.
Provided the storm does not track in toward the coast of central New Jersey, winds will become more northerly with time around New York City, with minor to moderate coastal flooding. Should the storm track south of New York City, moderate to major coastal flooding would be possible from Raritan Bay to the west end of Long Island Sound.
Conditions will tend to worsen farther east on Long Island and in southeastern New England with the storm coming this weekend.
New England faces tropical-storm-force winds
The storm's intensity will determine the wind strength. Winds could approach that of a strong tropical storm or hurricane in southeastern New England. Gusts of 40-60 mph will be common, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 80 mph.
"Since much of southeastern New England had heavy rain a week or so ago, the ground is moist and the trees are top-heavy with water," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said. "The combination of high winds and top-heavy trees will lead to a great risk of widespread power outages from trees coming down this weekend."
A general 1-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall over the southeastern half of New England from the storm Friday to Sunday. However, a zone in southeastern Massachusetts and part of Rhode Island is expected to pick up 4-8 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 13 inches.
Rainfall of this magnitude would be enough to lead to flash flooding along small streams and in urban areas. Outdoor activities would be adversely affected by the storm.
People who live along the coast or who have property or vacation plans should treat this situation as a major nor'easter or strong tropical storm.
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