Powerful hurricane Polo threatening Mexico's Pacific coast

Hurricane Polo remains a powerful hurricane just off Mexico’s Pacific coast, threatening flooding rain, damaging winds, storm surge and dangerous surf this week.

Hurricane Polo has rapidly strengthened into a major Category 5 hurricane as it threatens portions of Mexico’s Pacific coast with flooding rain, damaging winds and storm surge.

Polo went from a 50 mph tropical storm on Monday morning to a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane 24 hours later. As of Wednesday morning, Polo was nearly stationary and was located about 210 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

"Polo will bring flooding rain to the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacán through the end of the week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus said.

Due to the distance, Polo is forecast to be offshore, with risks of flooding rain, damaging winds and storm surge; it is rated a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico. A track closer to the coast could bring more severe impacts to the Mexican coast.

"A broad area of 1-2 inches of rain is expected across parts of coastal southwestern Mexico," Duffus said. "Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches are likely along the coasts of Guerrero, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches."

Wind gusts along the coasts of Guerrero, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán and in southwestern Nayarit are forecast to range from 40-80 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph. Gusts of 40-60 mph are forecast across southern Baja California Sur.

The brewing hurricane is likely to bring dangerous surf, strong wind gusts and heavy rain to Puerto Vallarta and Cabo San Lucas this week.

The storm will generate large swells near its center with seas of 30-45 feet. Those swells will spread outward over time. Conditions will be dangerous for small craft.

The storm’s compact size and distance offshore may limit the extent of storm surge reaching the coast. The steep slope along much of the Mexican coast should also limit the magnitude of the storm surge.

However, due to the hurricane's intensity, powerful breakers of 15-20 feet can form along some beaches with a more gradual slope into the ocean. Waves of this size will lead to significant overwash and a significant risk of damage.

The storm may make several abrupt turns early this week, but it will assume a general northwest track later this week into early next week, roughly paralleling the Mexican coast. Later next week, a turn toward the north and northwest is possible, which could bring heavy rain to parts of the southwestern United States.

Eastern Pacific tropical troubles to continue

Late in September, moisture from the storm could stream into the southwestern United States, where the North American monsoon has already produced rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms in recent weeks.

Additional tropical cyclones may develop in the eastern Pacific in the coming weeks, sending more swells toward Southern California and raising the risk of large waves, dangerous surf and coastal overwash from late September into early October.

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More tropical downpours for Hawaii as another drenching storm approaches

AccuWeather meteorologists are currently monitoring Tropical Depression 15-E southeast of Hawaii that will track close enough to bring torrential rain and flash flooding to the Big Island, spreading to the central islands during the middle to latter part of this week. The next name on the list of central Pacific tropical cyclones is Nolo.

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