Stormy pattern poses danger to outdoor enthusiasts in southwest US
AccuWeather meteorologists break down whether this unusually wet pattern has any bearing on how the monsoon season will shake out this summer.
An unusually wet weather pattern across the Southwest will heighten the flash flood risk and help prevent wildfires from starting.
An influx of moisture will bring daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Southwestern states through this week. AccuWeather meteorologists break down whether this unusually wet pattern this early in the year has any bearing on how the monsoon season will shake out this summer.
May is typically a dry month across this region. Desert locations such as Phoenix and Las Vegas have a historical average rainfall for the month of May of less than 0.15 of an inch. Higher-terrain locations such as Flagstaff, Arizona, typically receive around 0.75 of an inch, which is still substantially less than some of the surrounding months.
"This week is an active time for parts of the Southwest as an area of low pressure draws moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the area. We can expect at least a few afternoon thunderstorms around the Four Corners region daily through the whole week," AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton said.
The wet conditions are expected to strike repeatedly and could result in precipitation amounts that are double or triple the historical average for the month.
"The pattern that we are seeing setup across the Southwest is odd for this time of year. May is usually a very dry month before we see the start of the monsoon in summer," AccuWeather Meteorologist Joe Bauer said, adding that it is uncommon for an area of low pressure to linger this long over the region this time of year.
Residents and visitors alike looking to squeeze in time outdoors amid the pattern will want to stay abreast of the weather situation each day to ensure that they do not get caught amid a downpour or dangerous thunderstorm. Individuals should seek shelter inside immediately when thunder is heard, as at that point they are close enough to potentially be struck by lightning. Those spending lengthy periods of time outdoors will not want to stray far from safe shelter, as storms can develop rapidly.
AccuWeather forecasters say that the morning hours will be the most opportune time to hike, run or get in a round of golf. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to blossom during the middle of the day and continue into the early evening, especially in the high terrain. A few downpours could meander toward valley locations late each day.
Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
The region has experienced a vast improvement in drought conditions compared to one year ago, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Where pockets of abnormally dry to drought conditions remain, the early-season rainfall will be beneficial in helping to further ease these lingering problem areas.
Localized flash flooding is possible, with the greatest risk of these incidents occurring over recent burn scars where the ground is unable to sufficiently soak up the rain. The risk of flooding will also be heightened in narrow valleys. In these locations, a seemingly manageable amount of rain can funnel into a small area, causing water levels to rapidly rise.
Another hazard will be gusty, erratic winds that can accompany thunderstorms and possibly result in areas of blowing dust. Motorists across the region will want to remain wary of this hazard throughout the week.
Is this a sign of the monsoon to come this summer?
Bauer noted that while the pattern may seem monsoon-like to those who are familiar with the large-scale weather patterns in this part of the country, the mechanism for shower and thunderstorm development could not be more different.
"The classic setup for monsoon thunderstorms in the summer is an area of low pressure in the Southwest that develops due to a buildup of very high temperatures. The current setup is more of a function of below-average sea-surface temperatures across the eastern Pacific which has allowed for persistent dips in the jet stream into the region," Bauer said.
The North American monsoon season officially begins during the middle of June and continues through September.
AccuWeather's team of long-range meteorologists is expecting a late-developing monsoon this year which will result in below-average precipitation amounts.
"That's why we need to get as much moisture as we can now before the summer hits to avoid trending back into drought conditions," Bauer said.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
