Persistent plume of moisture to ignite flooding risk across the South
A pattern shift across the Gulf Coast states this week will spark an expansive threat for flooding. Some locations are projected to collect over 4 inches of rain this week.
As we we enter the fourth week of January, weather patterns are shifting across the country. Here’s what you can expect.
A pattern change is on the way for the South Central and Southeastern states this week as waves of storms are projected to funnel in moisture across the region. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that the extended stretch of wet weather and frequent downpours can result in areas of flash flooding and travel disruptions.
A southward dip in the jet stream helped to transport energy from the California coastline to the southern Plains on Sunday, sparking an initial wave of intense rainfall across Texas.
A heavy rainfall event started late Sunday as a moist air mass surged northward out of the Gulf and into areas of the Plains that saw temperatures near to below the freezing mark. With temperatures remaining below freezing, a disruptive ice event has begun across the region. Areas from Oklahoma into parts of Illinois will be among the locations that will see icy conditions continue today.
Oklahoma City and St. Louis will continue to face ice Monday morning, but as temperatures rise during the start of the week, the subsequent waves of moisture will come in the form of plain rain.
Forecasters say that an expansive swath from central and eastern Texas to northern Georgia, western North Carolina and far southern West Virginia could observe between 2-4 inches of rainfall throughout the week.
Busy metro areas such as Houston can be among some of the areas to have relentless, stormy conditions for several days.
"Showers can begin to move into the Houston area by Sunday night, and a steadier rain can develop on Monday. By Monday afternoon, rain can be heavy at times, and there may be a risk for flooding across the area," noted AccuWeather Meteorologist Haley Taylor.
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From Sunday night to Thursday night, areas of southeastern Texas, including Houston, can pick up upwards of 4 inches of rain. This corridor of the heaviest rainfall totals is expected to extend through central Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest Alabama and a portion of southwest Tennessee.
Some spots have already exceeded their typical monthly rainfall totals along the Gulf Coast, including Houston, Texas, Mobile, Alabama, and Tallahassee, Florida. As of Monday, Houston Hobby Airport had already collected 4.26 inches of rain since the start of the year, exceeding the typical monthly rainfall of 4.09 inches. Although much of that rainfall was collected during the rainfall events in the first full week of January, any persistent rain on top of that could result in an elevated flood risk this week.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for rainfall in the South this week is at 14 inches.
"One positive note to take from this event is that the rounds of rain may help with Mississippi River levels across the southern portion of the valley," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
Extreme to exceptional drought levels have gripped parts of Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, Mississippi and western Tennessee since at least the summer months of 2023. Although drought conditions in this zone have become less widespread since last October, any event that brings persistent rainfall could help to improve levels.
Some risk for severe thunderstorms
In addition to the flood risk across the Gulf Coast states, forecasters warn of an additional threat: damaging winds.
From Tuesday night to Wednesday, thunderstorms that develop across eastern Texas, southern Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi could bring the risk of severe weather. Localized damaging wind gusts could reach speeds of 60-70 mph at times with the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph.
Following the ample rainfall that is expected to drench these locations from late weekend onward, any heavy downpour from thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday could further exacerbate flooding issues in the region.
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