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Early-season hot spell to envelop parts of central US

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Apr 29, 2020 6:42 PM EDT

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Things are getting pretty dusty at this open field in Aurora, Colorado, on April 28, after this dust devil gets caught swirling across the area.

Meteorologists expect the hottest weather of the year to erupt across the eastern slopes of the Rockies and much of the central and southern Plains with record-challenging temperatures into the weekend.

"The same pattern that caused summerlike heat to build along the California coast and send thousands to area beaches has shifted eastward, allowing temperatures to climb over a large part of the central U.S. into this weekend," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

The heat surge follows a severe weather outbreak that produced a derecho over parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.

In some cases, the weather pattern could rival some of most extreme heat for so early in the season.

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"Temperatures across the central and southern Rockies to the same areas on the Plains will surge to 15-25 degrees Fahrenheit above average," Pastelok said.

Albuquerque, New Mexico, reached 88 on Thursday, which was the city's highest temperature of 2020 thus far. The forecast calls for the high to be right at the 90-degree mark on Friday, the first day of May. The earliest 90-degree temperature on record for the city is on May 3, when the temperature climbed to 92 F back in 1947. The normal high for this time of the year is in the middle 70s.

Through April 29, the highest the temperature has gotten to in Amarillo, Texas, has been 90. That mark will be eclipsed by at least 5 degrees in the coming days as temperatures are forecast to climb into at least the middle 90s and could approach the century mark during the first couple of days of May.

Dallas is forecast to equal its high temperature benchmark of 2020 thus far on Monday. On April 8, the temperature spiked to 97, and Monday's high could match that.

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Even where temperatures fail to reach or exceed the high mark of the season so far, a number of locations over the lower Plains and Mississippi Valley could at least record the second warmest day of the year so far this weekend and rival the brief heat spike from early April.

April has been cooler-than-average from the eastern slopes of the Rockies to the southern Appalachians and the coastal Northeast. Areas west of the Rockies and over the Southeast have been warmer-than-average.

"A southward dip in the jet stream persisted from the northern Plains to the Northeast during much of April," Pastelok said, adding that this has supported the cool weather. At the same time, there has been a northward bulge in the jet stream over the southwestern U.S., which has really allowed the warmth to build strongly of late.

"While some cool air will slice southward and push westward over the central and southern Plains early next week, the overall pattern may hold into the middle of May, before perhaps the jet stream flattens out," Pastelok explained.

A flatter west-to-east jet stream would translate to more seasonable temperatures and less extremes from west to east and north to south.

The pattern into mid-May is unlikely to bring any widespread rainfall to the region. While there has been slight improvement in abnormally dry to drought conditions in parts of western Texas and the central Plains since early April, conditions have not changed over much of the southern and central High Plains and southern Rockies, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

Dry to drought conditions are likely to expand with the heat over the region during the next week or so.

An elevated risk of wildfire ignition will be present most days due to leftover dry brush from the winter and gusty winds. Higher temperatures can cause humidity levels to plummet and allow any sparks to rapidly grow into a large blaze.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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