AccuWeather's 2021 Canada summer forecast

The summer solstice, which will mark the first official day of summer, is still a month away, but the beginning of June is just around the corner, and AccuWeather long-range forecasters say that in some areas of Canada, summer conditions could kick into high gear earlier than normal.

The team, led by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, released its annual summer forecast for the country this week, warning that building heat could worsen drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires for some regions this summer. Anderson has been forecasting at AccuWeather for 32 years, with more than a decade at the helm of the company's focus on weather for Canada.

As the country faces the second full summer amid the coronavirus pandemic and restrictions ease up, here's a look at some notable weather highlights Canadians can expect over the next few months with a complete region-by-region breakdown.

Warm and stormy in Eastern and Atlantic Canada

Waters in the western Atlantic, particularly those bordering Atlantic Canada, have been much warmer than normal throughout the spring. That trend is expected to continue during the summer months, according to Anderson.

Ocean water, typically cooled during the winter, takes time to warm up as daily air temperatures trend warmer and the sun angle becomes higher in the sky. This slower moderation usually keeps coastal areas cooler through the spring and even into the summer.

However, the warmer water off the coast of Atlantic Canada can allow heat to build faster across Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia this summer.

In addition to warmer waters, persistent high pressure sitting overhead can allow for more hours of sunshine, while also ushering in warmer air from farther south in cities including St. John's, Quebec City and Saint John.

Normal high temperatures in these cities in the summer climb to the 60s and 70s F (16-21 C).

With heat and humidity building in the east and dry conditions farther west, the main battleground between these two air masses is forecast to shift into southern Ontario and southern Quebec this summer. According to Anderson, this can lead to a higher number of days with showers and heavy to severe thunderstorms.

Quebec City and Montreal are some of the cities that can expect above-normal temperatures to take hold often this summer. Average high temperatures for Quebec City in late July are 78 F (25C) and in Montreal, late July high temperatures rise to 81 F (27C). To the west in Ontario, Toronto is expected to have normal temperatures throughout the summer, which at its peak in late July is an average high of 78F (25C). These three cities are also likely to experience several rounds of thunderstorms this summer.

This will be an extension of the stormy pattern expected to develop throughout the summer months in the northeastern United States.

Of course, the other big weather maker coastal Canadians will want to be wary of this summer is any threat that comes in the form of tropical storms or hurricanes. AccuWeather forecasters are calling for another active Atlantic hurricane season, but not as frenetic as the 2020 season, and that extends to the Atlantic coast of Canada as well, Anderson said.

"We are anticipating an active Atlantic season," he said. "That coupled with projected higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures," he continued, mean "the risk for a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane in Atlantic Canada is slightly greater than normal."

Cool in British Columbia to building heat in the Rockies

The months of June, July and August can bring to mind warm days filled with sunshine. However, this isn't expected to be the case across northern British Columbia this summer.

A storm track from the Gulf of Alaska into Canada's western most province can ignite rounds of rain over the region throughout the summer months.

"Most of the Pacific moisture, at least for the first half of the summer will likely be directed into northwestern British Columbia," said Anderson, adding that as a result there will be "cloudier and cooler days compared to normal."

There is a risk for localized flooding in this region throughout the summer, especially if heavier downpours move through the area or prolonged periods of rainfall.

Anderson also added that slightly lower-than-normal sea surface temperatures off the northern British Columbia coast can moderate temperatures across the region, keeping them near to below normal.

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The cooler Pacific waters will also influence air temperatures across southwestern British Columbia. Near-normal temperatures are expected in this region throughout much of the summer, including Vancouver.

Normal high temperatures in Vancouver during the months of June, July and August are in the middle 60s to lower 70s F (18-22 C).

Farther inland in southern British Columbia, a weather pattern building over the southern Prairies is expected to extend into the Canadian Rockies.

Tale of two summers in the Prairies

The summer months may be a tale of two seasons across the Canadian Prairies and the southern Canadian Rockies with one area expecting warm and rainy days, while heat and drought conditions will worsen in another zone.

Above-normal temperatures and very little rainfall are expected in the northern Plains of the United States, and that same pattern is expected to extend into southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

According to Anderson, thunderstorm activity is expected to be lower than normal in the southern Canadian Rockies compared to typical summers.

This can be disastrous for an area already dealing with severe drought conditions.

"Ongoing severe to extreme drought from southern Saskatchewan to southern Manitoba is likely to expand and get worse into the summer with the potential for low agricultural yields and added stress on livestock," warned Anderson.

He added that water-use restrictions and low river and stream levels will likely be issues through much of the summer.

The worsening drought conditions can feed the heat in the southern Prairies, leading to an abnormally high number of days above 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius).

This would be significantly warmer than normal for cities such as Calgary, Edmonton and Regina, which typically have temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s F (18-24 C).

"With a dry ground, most of the sun's energy will go directly into heating the surface rather than evaporating water," explained Anderson.

The factors listed above in combination with an abundance of dried or even dead vegetation will increase the risk for a bad fire season from the Rockies to the Prairies, Anderson warned, noting that this season could be worse than the fire seasons of recent years.

Most of the thunderstorms that develop this summer are expected to remain well north, traversing the northern portion of the Prairies. The storms expected to keep cool and wet conditions in northern British Columbia will mainly take due easterly tracks.

While this can bring some much-needed precipitation to the area, Anderson cautioned that lightning strikes could start fires in these areas that have been dry throughout the spring.

Residents living in northeastern Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, already dealt with a wildfire after evacuation orders were issued on May 19. States of emergency were declared due to widespread power outages, according to a local media source.

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