V-Storm: Morning Model Questions

A quick morning update on the Valentine's Day storm. Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) is fearing a "Cat 5 Winter Storm", meaning a mean blizzard that shuts down all the major cities in the Northeast. The Forecast Models [JessePedia] are still in general agreement, though we're getting in that in-between area where the DGEX doesn't forecast that early and the NMM doesn't forecast that late, so today is kind of a hole in the model data.

Here's the official AccuWeather snow forecast map (in inches, highest blue = 15"). You wouldn't normally see this map normally released on our free website until tonight, but you can get this map in real-time on the Pro site. (The forecast stops on Valentine's Day morning; at that time, the storm has not made its trek though New England yet, hence the low amounts there).

Due to the number of fans that I have, I can’t provide specific forecasts beyond what is available from our websites, but I can recommend a tool that we have that will allow you to tap into the latest thoughts from our 100 forecasters: Your AccuPOP. Also check Henry's Blog (PREMIUM | PRO) for his latest totals and map and view the snow forecast maps in our Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO) and Breaking Weather News Page (PREMIUM | PRO).

As noted, this will be about the last map from the DGEX; it's still trying to force some rain and icy precip in near the coast. The NMM may want to do this too -- see Elliot Abrams' blog (PREMIUM | PRO) this morning, where he discusses how the northward trend of the NMM could be a bad thing for the major cities if they love snow.

The NAM still looks good but the latest forecast hour doesn't show yet what the storm will do in the Northeast.

I'll await the 12Z GFS late this morning before making any notes about it.

Join me later today for a discussion of the GFS model's confidence in its own forecast (Ensembles).

A reminder: I can't monitor the models 24/7, but you can by subscribing to our pro site.