U.S. Average White Christmas Maps
It's that time of year to post the Chance of a White Christmas (U.S.) maps. Most of these maps are based on 30-year (1961-1990) snow cover data though some include data through at least the year 2000.*
SEE ALSO:
You'll note in the maps below that no major cities, even in the Northeast, show up with a significant chance. So why do people associate snow with Christmas? Read my blog entry Climate Origins of a White Christmas.
This map shows the technical probability based on one inch of snow on the ground:
Here's a prettier, less detailed version:
These maps have less resolution but break it down by amounts:
*These maps come from the NCDC, NOAA's climate warehouse (where I used to work). This link from Cornell University has a more comprehensive, longer-ranging historical probability of a white Christmas for selected cities in the Northeast, written in 2004. NOAA has also prepared an entire PDF on the subject, with specific city percentages.
Here are some highlights from the NOAA report. Now, given they are only using a few hundred stations here, so we're talking major cities, but in general, if you must see a White Christmas this year, you need to move to Stampede Pass, Washington. Excluding Alaska, of course, where about one-third of the stations had 100% chances of one inch...
Greatest probability of 1-inch depth:
100% - Marquette MI
100% - Sault Ste Marie MI
100% - Hibbing MN
100% - International Falls MN
100% - Stampede Pass WA
Greatest probability of 5-inch depth:
100% - Stampede Pass WA
Greatest probability of 10-inch depth:
96% - Stampede Pass WA
Above 75% chance (likely!) of 1-inch depth:
100% - Stampede Pass WA
97% - Duluth MN
93% - Mount Washington NH
93% - Wasau WI
89% - Alexandria MN
87% - Butte MT
87% - Concord NH
87% - Eau Claire WI
87% - Bismarck ND
85% - Lebanon NH
83% - Fargo ND
83% - Alpena MI
83% - Sheridan WY
80% - Kalispell MT
79% - Minot ND
79% - Williston ND
77% - Massena NY
77% - Green Bay WI
77% - Lander WY
77% - Glasgow MT
76% - Lewistown MT
76% - Glens Falls NY
