Tropical Storm Hanna Models Shift West? East?

UPDATE: All of the 12Z came in as expected (little change from 06Z, still NC/SC border) and all of the 18Z are also in now. The 18Z models show a concentration a little further east, along the southern Brunswick County beaches including Oak Island, which I mentioned earlier today. However, the models are not as concentrated as I would like to see them considering we're 12 hours from landfall, and I think we may not know where landfall is until the last minute.

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ORIGINAL POST:

When I first saw it, I was a little worried about the 12Z Model Spread [JessePedia] map (the morning run). If you look at all the 06Z models vs. all the 12Z models, it might appear that there is a westward shift in tracks, and it's noteable that only one model comes close to either the NHC's or AccuWeather's track. The Carolina border is free of storms at 12Z.

BUT... don't be fooled. If you take out the other models from the 06Z run (the "late" models) then you get a map that looks very similar to the 12Z. If there is a westward trend, we'll find out for sure when the "late 12Z" models come out. (The Model Spread graphic on our Hurricane site makes this kind of hard to see, because it's zoomed so far out, so I grabbed a shot from our GISPro site to get the maps above).