Severe Outbreak Day 1: 4500 CAPE, Baby!

ORIGINAL ENTRY:

And so it begins. A severe weather outbreak which could be one of historic proportions. I've emailed my friends in the Plains to say: "Good luck and stay safe."
The SPC [JessePedia] has issued a Moderate Risk from northern Texas into southern Nebraska today.

The SPC says:

...THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

The RUC Forecast Model is showing some incredible Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia] from the Forecast Models [JessePedia] this morning -- the highest I've seen so far this year (and please bear in mind that, since the RUC model only goes out 12 hours, the last hour was still increasing and some of these may not have even maxed out yet!)

I mean, check out this CAPE map for western Oklahoma this evening. CAPE is a general severe weather index. 2500 is considered the number to exceed to guarantee severe weather.

Here is what some of the other 11Z RUC indexes say for western Oklahoma this evening:

Energy Helicity:6+ (scale max is 4!): Violent Mesocyclone-Induced Tornadoes (F4/F5) Possible
Storm-Relative Helicity:400+ (scale max is 450): Strong, F2-F3 tornadoes are possible
Lifted Index:<-8 (scale max is -6!): Extremely unstable, supports widespread severe weather
CAPE: >4000 (scale max is 2500!): Extremely Unstable Atmosphere (see below)

Here's how the SPC says it will setup:

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