SE Tropical Storm: NHC Speaks, Model Paths

UPDATE: Pontification from our best mets:Henry (PREMIUM | PRO) says "I still like the Euro solution from last night which takes the storm up through north-central Florida, then hugs it along the coast all the way to New England. On that track, the heavy rains and gusty winds stay along the coast. It seems to me, if the system comes out of the tropics and is not associated with an upper level low, then it's a tropical low...you decide."AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO) chimes in about the GFS being wishy-washy: "Simply look at the Euro and its track from early week up to the west of Florida and stack it against what has been coming out from the GFS."

ORIGINAL POST:

The NHC [JessePedia] has sent a recon plane into the storm, and has released a statement on this weekend's potential tropical storm for Florida and the East Coast. They have also started running their Model Spread [JessePedia] graphic, which is shown below.

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Here's what the storm looks like on our Gulf Visible/Infrared Combo satellite this morning:

The NHC's statement says the storm will "MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW... THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."