Ohio Valley Ready to Rock and Roll?

Well, maybe. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for an area from Northern Indiana eastward to Western Pennsylvania.

I believe this may be the first Slight Risk that flirts with Central PA, home of AccuWeather HQ, this year so far. I'll rate the Henry Hype index as a "7" so far this morning. He said in his blog yesterday "The most likely threat will be for damaging wind gusts and hail, but it is the situation where tornadoes can occur, especially across southern Ohio."

The RUC Forecast Model [JessePedia] only forecasts out to 4 PM Eastern this morning and shows most of the favorable area (based on CAPE and Lifted Index Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia]) in Indiana at that time, so for us here in Central PA, this is probably going to be one of those disappointing situations where the convection reaches us after dark when daytime heating is being subtracted from the equation and therefore storms are decreasing. I think this is indicated by us being on the edge of both the SPC and Accu risk areas.

RUC CAPE AT 20Z

The SPC agrees with Henry's analysis, adding:

*Wasn't that a Bruce Willis movie?