Morning Xmas Storm Models
UPDATE: The 12Z GFS is fairly consistent with precipitation types for next week's storm, though it is keeping the storms more separated now, the first mainly rain for the Northeast, the second snow. It is now predicting light snow or flurries all the way to the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday evening.
img src="http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/community/2006/gfskey.gif">
ORIGINAL POST:
Friday morning, it's pitch black outside and I'm finishing up Christmas shopping at Wal-Mart at 6:30 AM. Yeah, I'm that guy.
But now I'm in work and will tell you a story about the overnight Weird Runs [JessePedia] (6Z) of the Forecast Models [JessePedia] are much more bullish about a snowstorm from Chicago to Boston on and after Christmas Day. But, these are the "weird runs" so we'll see if it sticks when the "real" GFS morning run comes out. Here's a sneak peek.
The GFS merges two storms over the Midwest late Christmas Day, with rain on the eastern side through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, but dragging significant snow behind it from Chicago eastward down the spine of the Appalachians into Georgia, then into New England. After that, it keeps light to moderate snow over much of the Northeast through December 30th!
The DGEX favors a similar solution about 12 hours later than the GFS, with significant snow down the spine of the Appalachians but the snow stops falling in the Northeast by the 27th.
I haven't had a chance to look at other models in this timeframe which don't have the winter precipitation charts shown here (and are therefore harder to interpret). Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) has done that leg work, so check out his morning video.
The bottom line if GFS & DGEX are correct is:
Chicago: Late Christmas Day Snowstorm
OH, PA, New England: Rain to Snow After Christmas
Appalachians Down to Georgia: Snow After Christmas
Texas: Probably Rain Christmas Eve then Dry
The official AccuWeather.com forecast map is below:
And the super-secret Pro-site-only, manually drawn snowfall maps, just drawn this morning, are as follows:
6AM MON - 6AM TUE
6AM TUE - 6AM WED
KEY
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