Models Switch Up Xmas Storm
UPDATE: Here's an update on the Forecast Model [JessePedia] information just in.
- The new GFS run (18Z) is back to a mixed Christmas Day storm, late in the day, in the Northeast, and hints at snow flurries nearly to the Gulf on the TX/LA line. We'll see if this storm sticks with the 00Z run or not.
- The 18Z says Dallas gets two chances for snow, on Christmas Eve Morning and Christmas Day Evening when the mixed storm is in PA, though the placement and type of precip in TX are questionable. (The DGEX says no snow for Dallas).
What does AccuWeather say officially this evening? None of the usual "feature" maps have been produced yet, so that probably means the models are jumping around so much the forecasters don't think it's worth taking a stab yet. I did steal this graphic from our Pro site:
Here's what AccuWeather mets are saying:
AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO): "The stand is this will be a moderate to major winter event on the western side, but that is not for the eastern big cites. I am taking the idea this a start over Texas with cold rain (wet snow perhaps west of I-35) but it won't be until the Tennessee Valley we starting see consistent snow, I think. However, the Euro danger of farther west is one that I can fully see, which would take the heavy snow band up to the west of my track."
Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO): "The message from the GFS run is one of stormy weather coming. Don't look at the details yet. Keep in mind that every storm will need to be looked at carefully to see where the snow will go. The GFS solution reminds me a little of the 1987 blizzard where some innocent shortwave came up from Texas and phased with a northern branch storm to from a major storm."
ORIGINAL POST:
QUICK MORNING MODEL NOTES:
- The DGEX says Chicago is back on the border of a White Christmas but almost the entire Northeast will be wet rather than white. Eastern TN, the NC mountains and the I-95 corridor have a shot at light snow on the 27th.
- The GFS doesn't believe the Chicago scenario (pretty much no White Christmas anywhere) but thinks the event on the 27th could be much more significant from PA northward and west of the I-95 corridor. It thinks the latter event could give some flakes to the Deep South on the 26th.
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