Models On Tropical Threats This Week

UPDATE: Here's the 12Z model track:

The models are tracking a tropical threat this week, but at this time it looks like it atmospheric conditions will not be favorable for tropical storm formation, so it will probably not be named by the Hurricane Center. The models are also favoring a trip over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, which have mountains high enough to weaken the storm further. However that doesn't preclude gusty winds and rough surf late week, and the humidity spreading in ahead of the storm will cause an increase in tropical downpours of rain over the Southeast according to our news article.

There's also a "hidden" threat of some "homegrown" development off the Carolina coast late week, that some models have been hinting at (see topic on our Forums).

Ironically (if that second part comes true) NOAA says today is Hurricane Awareness Day for New England. NOAA reminds residents:

"A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT NEED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALMOST ANNUALLY AND SOMETIMES SEVERAL TIMES DURING AN ACTIVE SEASON... REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ALONG THE EAST COAST HAVE BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NORTH COUNTRY."