Models On Mid-Atlantic and TX Snow
It looks like these late-season April snow storms are gonna happen, folks, here are our latest maps. The Forecast Models [JessePedia] are pretty consistent with each other. I think the big question will be: 1.) How much snow will accumulate on the ground, which is warmer than it has been during past events, and 2.) How quickly will that April sun melt that snow. With the disclaimer that these are the Weird Overnight Runs [JessePedia], here's what the models are saying this morning:
The NMM Forecast Model doesn't see more than a couple inches with the mid-Atlantic system:
The GFS is even less concerned:
But the models will be terrible at answering either question I posed above, so what's a person to do? Well, if a person is on the Pro site, where the model graphics above came from, they can also access the Accumulated Snowfall Loop from the AccuModel Page, which outputs the collective-consciousness of our (over 100) meteorologists. The latest map is posted below; Pro users can see it update later today (updates every 6 hours).
The AccuModel map is used to make our television-quality graphic that you see below, which will update occasionally in the Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO).
NOTE THAT WE ARE NOT SHOWING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW, ONLY SNOW FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SNOW
For Texas... the NMM thinks 3-4 inches will be the max just south of Dallas:
And you won't believe how far east that snow goes... look for my next "HYPE" blog entry for more information on this. Note too that Dallas is close enough to the line that it could get anywhere from nothing to 3 or 4 inches.
The snowfall map from the GFS highlights nearly 6 inches near Amarillo, but for the second big area, it looks like a little more snow, up to 6 inches, and a little further south near Waco:
Here's our official map. We're not buying into the second maximum between Dallas and Waco -- our meteorologists believe that it will be too warm and the mix of rain and snow will not accumulate significantly.
*10:1 Snow Ratio [JessePedia]
Report a Typo
