Models Disagree on SE Tropical Storm

Here's the latest model forecasts for this weekend's possible Tropical Storm in the Southeast, from AccuWeather.com Professional. For reference when quoting minimum pressures below, 1000 mb is a "decent" storm; 980 mb is a Cat 1 hurricane.

If information like this is critical to your business, remember that Energy Pro has custom forecast maps from Joe Bastardi for this system.

The GFS has decided it will be a weak storm at only <1008 mb, passing over Florida and then out to sea. Here's how the other models stack up:

NMM: A <1002 mb low approaches NW Florida at the last forecast hour.

ECMWF: A weak low crosses FL, becomes <1000 mb over Wilmington, NC, then moves northeastward up east coast, falling to <996 over coastal New England.

DGEX: This model is the most impressive, saying a significant storm will make landfall in NW Florida Saturday night, then move inland up the east coast, deepening to <994 mb as it moves off the coast at Norfolk.

NOGAPS: Shows a weak system moving over NW Florida and inland, exiting at Norfolk but clipping Nantucket at a minimum pressure of <1000.

As far as heavy rain, the GFS says that will track across south Florida...

But the DGEX favors heavy rain on the western side of the system, moving through central Georgia and the Carolinas, going against what AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO) said in his blog yesterday about his expectation that the eastern side of the storm will contain the heaviest rain and wind.