Model Mayhem: Double Barrel Double Trouble

UPDATE: For what it's worth (and it ain't worth much), here are the GFS & NMM snow cover maps as of the 12Z morning runs.

UPDATE: The 12Z GFS Ensembles are now in and you can read my thoughts on them here.

If anyone tells you today that they know what's going to happen this weekend in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, don't believe them. The models are showing different solutions today then they did yesterday.

Most of the major models are now showing a double-barrelled low pressure system, a rare beast that will make forecasts even more complicated than before, if we are to believe this idea (remember that the position and strength of the low pressure area(s) ultimately determines how much rain and snow will fall).

This morning's (12Z) NMM Model:

This morning's (12Z) GFS Model:

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Last night's (00Z) Canadian Model:

The biggest implication of a double barrel low is that there are two weak storms instead of one strong one, cutting down on any biblical snow accumulations wrought by a strong Nor'easter. AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL), however, isn't buying into this solution of separate low pressure systems and thinks the southern system will be an appendage at best - leaving the possibility of a single, large low pressure system which could be a Nor'easter, if it's close enough to shore.

When the GFS 12Z Ensembles come in, we can see how confident the model is in its own forecast; stay tuned.