Model Details on Northeast Snow This Week

The first snow event for the Northeast will happen Tuesday into Wednesday this week. Note that this is the same storm that the GFS predicted 10 days ago (for which I got some flak for posting).

But don't get too excited. As I said 10 days ago, this will mostly be a snowflake (and not snowfall) event. Even the models are showing very limited snow cover with this event. Officially, the AccuWeather.com forecast shows no accumulation other than on the top of Mount Washington:

The GFS (notorious for overdoing winter events) over a much larger area; the NMM model shows two concentrations, one over New York and northern Pennsylvania, then another later over northern New England. The GFS also insists that flurries might be seen as far south as West Virginia (see below) but the NMM is not buying it, saying northern Pennsylvania will be it.