Massive Flooding Threat With Rita

Hurricane Rita has been downgraded to a Category 3 storm, but is still very dangerous. I talked a little bit earlier about how a big threat from Hurricane Rita could be massive flooding in easternmost Texas and Louisiana. I wanted to explain a little more why AccuWeather's meteorologists are worried about this.

The latest forecast tracks from 35 computer forecast models are shown above (see my Hurricane Forecast Model tutorial). Notice that several models are taking Rita in a loop pattern. This would keep the area under heavy rain for several days. Below is our latest rainfall forecast map for the area, which is conservative... some of our meteorologists are calling for a maximum of 30 inches of rain in the hardest hit areas. The government is also on task calling for up to 25 inches.

I also had mentioned in the last post Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. I was writing the weather headlines for AccuWeather.com that week and I remember seeing the amazing 36" rainfall amounts show up on our maps (one of which is below). You can also see Allison's track map here. A repeat of Allison is what we are fearing at this time.