Jesse vs. Tropical Storm Emily

UPDATE 8/3 9 AM: I am now officially inside the AccuWeather Eyepath, which is something that may have never happened before for me on vacation:

However, the bulk of the tracks are still out to sea.

That is, with the exception of the HWRF, which brings it over Oak Island Sunday evening by which time (un)fortunately I will be gone. (I have never been impressed with the accuracy of that main hurricane model, or its predecessor the GFDL).

ORIGINAL ENTRY:

If the forecasts from this afternoon are correct, I could have one of my closest calls with a Tropical Storm (and potential evacuation) during vacation this weekend. Here is a graphic from the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center showing the forecast position (red = AccuWeather, yellow = NHC blue = model) of Tropical Storm Emily (70 mph sustained winds - almost a hurricane) as of Saturday at 2 PM... and my location as of Saturday morning when I'm leaving the beach house here on Oak Island, NC. However, the late afternoon ATCF models (181 magic 8-balls) seem to be mostly away from the U.S. coast, and this storm has a long way to go over a lot of tough terrain in Hispaniola before it gets that close.

I've been coming to this beach every year since I was born and we've never been evacuated due to a Tropical Storm or Hurricane; the closest was Hurricane Charley in 1986 -- they were starting evacuations as we left for the week on Saturday. Hurricane Alex formed just off the coast in 2004, but did not cause evacuations this far south.