It`s The Size Of the Landfall That Matters

The title also could have been "Fickle Fay Flummoxes Forecasters" as our News Director suggested. There has been much ado about Tropical Storm Fay's multiple landfalls. She will make her third landfall in Florida tonight, according to our current EyePath, and fourth when she hits the Panhandle this weekend (Keys, Southwest Florida, Northeast Florida, Panhandle, got it?).

But does a third (or fourth or fifth) landfall really matter? Not really, because of the way The NHC [JessePedia] defines "landfall", which is the center point going on to the coast. By that logic, she could make an infinite number of landfalls as she traverses the Florida coastline.

A BETTER IDEA: The center of the storm, where there is no wind and sunny skies, is not what leaves its mark on the coast. If we're going to name storms, why not define "landfall" as the eyewall or Tropical Storm / Hurricane-force winds? If we're worried about storms being different sizes, with the winds different mileages from the center, then make something up - if the storm is named it won't have its tropical-storm force winds 200 miles to the southwest of the center.

Still, it's interesting that Fay will make four "landfalls" in the same state, even by the government's definition. I can't get a hold of any statistics on prior multiple-landfall storms, but I would say that four is extremely rare and three in the same state is even more rare. Of course, she's no Ivan, which, if you recall, made landfall on the Gulf Coast, then exited stage right from the Carolinas, to cross Florida and make a third* landfall in Texas. Fay's just meandering around the same state.