HYPE: This Evening's Severe Outbreak

The model hype today is short-range because the next two weeks look absolutely boring to the models as of Wednesday morning. No extreme temps, no severe weather outbreaks, no snow for the eastern United States.

But the NMM and RUC models are hinting that this evening's severe weather outbreak could be significant, showing a wide area of -8 Lifted Indexes and CAPE's over 2500. Below is a sampling of maps, first from the RUC (which should know what it's talking about, as it is an extremely high resolution short-range model, run with severe weather in mind) and the NMM.

According to my Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia] from the Forecast Models [JessePedia] page, that will equate to an atmosphere that is described as "Extremely unstable, supports widespread severe weather" and "Very Unstable" in the areas of Texas and Oklahoma that have the highest numbers. If that's too much information, just remember: RED=BAD.

At this time, The SPC [JessePedia] is only calling for a Slight risk. I'm a little surprised that they haven't raised it to Moderate.

Here's the NMM's thoughts: