How Big Will Hurricane Earl's Waves Get?
UPDATE: We have our first map of Earl's expected effects.
Hurricane Earl is the talk of the town this week up and down the East Coast. Whether or not he gets close enough to cause major damage still remains to be seen. There are a lot of different computer models in the Model Spread graphics on AccuWeather.com, showing a lot of different solutions this morning:
The vast majority keep him off the coast -- far enough to keep most wind and rain away from coastal areas outside of Cape Cod and the Outer Banks. A more likely impact from Earl will be waves. The latest run of the WaveWatch model keeps the center of the storm offshore, but this is what it says about the waves as of Friday afternoon:
If you read the contours closely, the model is predicting 12-foot waves on the eastern shores of Long Island (plus perhaps New Jersey) and Cape Cod Friday, with waves as high as 40 feet offshore! Look at how closely the wave lines are "packed." A slight shift in the track either way could mean the difference between 6 foot waves (no big deal) and 18 feet (likely major damage) on shore!
The Outer Banks are likely to bear the brunt of wave damage Thursday night, with the model predicting around 20 feet in height.
MORE WAVE MAPS: New Jersey Coast | Cape Cod
Of course, this forecast will change rapidly in the days ahead... so stay tuned to AccuWeather.com for more information from our news team. Remember that rip currents are going to be a problem without a doubt (they were with Danielle, which was farther offshore). Keep an eye on my East Coast webcams list late this week to see the wave action. Meanwhile, check the San Juan local radar and MapSpace for satellite and radar views of Earl.
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