Hey Gulf, R U Cool? Water Temperatures Vs. Tornadoes

You may recall that last winter, a record-low tornado count of "one" was set in February, primarily by below-normal water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. This February, so far, we've only had 3 tornadoes, but there's plenty of time to increase that. I wanted to take a look at how the temperatures compare (so far, in early February) vs. this time last year. Here is 2011, followed by the "R U Cool" version of 2010:

I couldn't find a weekly-averaged SST map archive that showed the Gulf in any detail, so I had to look through daily archive images to find a day when there were few clouds. Forgiving some clouds that were still there (shown as white), and also that these are different satellite's sensors, and that they are two days off, the temperatures look approximately the same at this time.

Which means that they are way below normal this February too, right? A check of the Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly chart confirms this.

Ignoring the El Nino in Feb. 2010 and this year's La Nina, which also have an effect, this probably speaks to the lack of tornadoes this month too -- although we think winter is over for the South, so that could change (although it *is* February and there are only 8 days left -- and the SPC forecasts don't show anything for that period). And from our article detailing the 2011 Tornado Season Forecast, it sounds like right now we think that the big factor this Spring will be the frequently-dipping jet stream, which could cause a more active season.