Great Lakes HIGH Risk, Canada Storms
UPDATE: The SPC has lowered the highest tornado risk from 30% to 15%, but has kept the Severe Storm Risk "High" so we're still looking at a dangerous situation.
ORIGINAL POST:
The SPC has issued a rare HIGH RISK for severe storms today in the state of Wisconsin and surrounding area. You can count the number of high risks issued per year on your fingers, so this is serious stuff.
The risk of a tornado in these areas is over 30% today. That may not sound like a lot, but the chance of any one location being hit by a tornado is normally minuscule, and that's about the highest it ever gets.
WHY SO FEW REPORTS YESTERDAY?
Yesterday's outbreak may have seemed disappointing to U.S. severe weather enthusiasts. For a Moderate Risk issued by the SPC, you'd expect to see more than 65 severe weather reports and only 5 tornadoes.
But enthusiasts shouldn't have been surprised. While I was lazy enough to quote only the SPC yesterday, Henry really hit the nail on the head (PREMIUM | PRO) by saying:
"The storm will have a lot of wind energy around. So when storms try to develop away from the low center, then tend to get highly sheared apart. Tomorrow I think is the greatest risk of severe weather."
CANADA GOT HAMMERED THOUGH:
In Calgary, Alberta, however, the storms were impressive, by Canadian standards, according to Canadian expert Brett Anderson (PREMIUM | PRO):
"I saw some amazing footage of the storm that battered the Calgary area Tuesday. The storm was pretty devastating with widespread flash flooding, cars totally submerged on the highways, large hail, power outages and lightning strikes which touched off a few house fires."
And indeed, Canada.com has an article with a photo showing accumulating hail, and says that a tornado was sighted west of the city. CBC has a photo of one of those lightning-sparked fires, and also a photo of a car underwater during severe flooding in Edmonton. Brett will have more information on today's Canadian severe weather threat in his blog (PREMIUM | PRO).
SO WHAT LIES AHEAD?
The SPC has issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook] which says that storms will develop over Minnesota and Iowa this afternoon and become more severe as they move east-northeastward, dropping tornadoes and large hail through the High risk area this evening. Stay tuned to my blog for video-blog analysis of the most severe storms as they occur this evening.
Moving in the opposite direction from yesterday's note, Henry is much more hyped than the SPC on Friday's outbreak here in our backyard, Central Pennsylvania, saying that we have a significant tornado risk. Stay tuned for chase reports from us tomorrow, should anything interesting happen.
HENRY'S TORNADO RISK MAP - READ HIS BLOG (PREMIUM | PRO) FOR MORE INFO
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