Final NE Snow Totals, Busted Forecast Analysis
Below is a map of official amounts transmitted to the National Weather Service. I think this map does a pretty good job of describing the end game.
Now if you compare this to our forecast maps, you can see that we definitely predicted more snow than what fell in the major cities.
Amounts By Major City (NWS vs. Our Morning Prediction Thursday & Friday & Saturday*):
Pittsburgh, PA: 0.8" vs. 6.0" & 4.5" & 1.0"Philadelphia, PA: 0.1" vs. 3.0" & 1.0" & 1.0"New York City, NY: 1.0" vs. 4.5" & 3.0" & 1.5"Boston, MA: 0.7" vs. 3.0" & 5.0" & 5.0"
*Estimated based on maps linked above. Amounts forecast on AccuWeather.com may have been different, but should have been close.
I think it's pretty clear that our 48-hour forecast (Thursday morning's forecast) busted in the major cities. We billed this storm (on Thursday) as being the "first significant snowstorm" for Philadelphia, which didn't happen, and there was barely any accumulation in any of the major Northeast cities (I'm not mentioning the Mid Atlantic because our maps didn't predict any accumulation there).
After the models shifted northward with the snow accumulation late Thursday, AccuWeather.com's Friday's forecast was better in most cities, but was still too high, and most people will remember the Thursday forecast. So, yes, we busted, and for that we apologize. As I always say, if we could get every forecast right, we'd all be driving Lamborghinis. I don't think that our predictions were far off from our competitors, except that we started talking about the storm earlier. If you disagree, feel free to post a Comment below, but please, keep it civil, and quote stats as I have here.
That said, I think some people who posted on our Forums didn't think the clipper would result in the high snow amounts (over 6 or 8 inches) that some people were calling for. Looking at the list below, with 8 inches or higher in 9 states, I hope we can put that argument to rest.
Is winter over yet? Absolutely not, but I will admit a disturbing trend so far this season for those south of I-80, and that is lack of snow (though not lack of precip - most of the last several storms before this one were ice).
Highest Amounts Per State:
If you measured something higher, and it's not in the list, that's because you didn't enter it on the SnowMatrix! Entering snowfall amounts there is free and easy and your report won't be distributed to the media or AccuWeather forecasters if you only leave a comment on one of our blogs.
Evanston, IL: 12.5" Burlington, WI: 12.0" Benton Harbor, MI: 12.2" Youngstown, OH: 11.4" Youngstown, OH: 10.5" (SnowMatrix) Fitzwilliam & Peterborough, NH: 11.0" Slippery Rock, PA: 10.0" (SnowMatrix) Hampstead, NH: 9.0" (SnowMatrix) Michigan City, IN: 8.8" Benton, IA: 8.6" Pepperell, MA: 8.5" Pepperell, MA: 8.5" (SnowMatrix) Catskill, NY: 8.0" (SnowMatrix) Aurora, IL: 8.0" (SnowMatrix) Lake Orion, MI: 7.2" (SnowMatrix) Jamestown, NY: 5.5" Rochester, VT: 5.25" (SnowMatrix) Albrightsville, PA: 5.0" Wethersfield, CT: 5.0" Warren, NJ: 3.8" (SnowMatrix) North Foster, RI: 3.6" Blairsville, NJ: 3.3" Stillwater & Long Valley, NJ: 3.5" (SnowMatrix)
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