Extreme Rain Bound For I-95 Corridor
I have several thoughts on the impending rain event which now seems bound for the populated I-95 corridor. First, the big concern is eastern North Carolina, which already received over 10 inches of rain in some areas (as I blogged yesterday). In fact if you compare the area that has seen heavy rain for the last week versus the high-resolution 4-KM WRF computer forecast model prediction, they almost match exactly.
The model rainfall prediction is literally off the scale, well above the top color indicating 6.9 inches. This area will almost definitely see severe flooding and residents should be preparing for flooding as if it were a full-fledged hurricane. This storm, even if it remains a depression, has joined forces with a front to provide extreme rainfall amounts that you might see with a much more powerful storm (not unlike the remnants of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 which combined with a stalled front to bring extreme flooding here in Central PA).
Since I reported on this storm yesterday, the NMM model shifted the heaviest rainfall directly over the I-95 corridor, which was reflected in yesterday's AccuWeather.com forecast map (we'll have a new map later today with amounts). If that happens, it will put a good dent in the drought, but won't statistically cancel it in some areas (most of the mid-Atlantic requires 6-12" to right the drought). Even though streams and rivers in this area are near record lows, which is a good thing, severe street flooding will occur in the cities and creek flooding could occur simply because the rain is falling too fast.
That said, the models will continue to tweak the location of the heaviest rainfall today, because they aren't yet sure where the storm will track, as you can see from this morning's model spread map. For more on the forecast, keep an eye on AccuWeather.com, Frank Strait's Southeast Blog and our other bloggers who cover the Northeast.
For additional updates during this storm, join me on Twitter or Facebook:
