This will be the final update until the morning. Although I've found myself pulling some all-nighters for various night time hurricanes in the past (Floyd comes to mind), I don't think this one warrants it, since it's still (as of 10 PM) a Tropical Storm.

Buoy 40413 is now gusting to 66 mph and reporting waves of 22 feet! This is more impressive than I would have expected. Southport is gusting to 49 mph. See links below for live and archived graphs.

The radar shot above shows that most of the major eyewall heavy rain is moving westward of Brunswick County. Some of those storms are showing significant rotation (green squares) but no Tornado Warnings have been issued recently. The center of the storm is still south of Long Beach. New radar loops have been uploaded to the archive.

UPDATES (9 PM):

TS FORCE ARRIVES: The NWS states this evening that "TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH TO AROUND 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST... INCLUDING SUNNY POINT... THE WATER FRONT AT SOUTHPORT AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH."

ABOUT OAK ISLAND... The National Weather Service in Wilmington, North Carolina has issued its last statement before landfall. The story for Oak Island (see previous entry) is:

THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST BEFORE 11 PM... HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE... MAXIMUM WIND STORM SURGE WILL BE NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE WHICH HAS JUST OCCURRED. THE SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET... WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST... WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL... PILING OF WATER UP THE CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING ON THE TRIBUTARIES IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY... SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY...

UPDATES (8 PM):

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES: Wilmington, North Carolina is posting rainfall totals of over 7 inches according to the Weather Channel, and 6.28" according to NOAA, and 6 to 7 inches according to Doppler estimates (image).

WATERSPOUT ON THE OUTER BANKS: At 7:30 pm, the following report was received by the National Weather Service: "LARGE WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE NEAR STACY, NC. NO DAMAGE REPORTED."

ALSO IN FLORIDA: Severe thunderstorms south of Ernesto, but spawned by him, have terrorized the Jacksonville, Florida area this evening. Three counties in Georgia have reported high winds with trees and power lines down. See radar loop.

ORIGINAL POST:

WINDS, PRESSURE, RADAR, SATELLITE @ 6 PM (RadarPlus)

Tropical Storm Ernesto has almost reached the North Carolina coast and it looks bad for Oak Island; landfall will be very near there, the closest storm to hit in a long time. Heavy rainbands are already affecting the coast and recon aircraft has confirmed at 8 pm that Ernesto remains a strong tropical storm but has not reached hurricane strength.

WINDS @ 5 PM (RadarPlus)

KSUT (Southport, NC) is the nearest official land station. You can see observations from that station here or on AccuWeather.com's subscription services which show wind gusts in knots (Premium | Pro). At 7:30 p.m., the station was only gusting to 26 knots (30 mph).

PRESSURE, RADAR @ 5 PM (RadarPlus)

Buoy 41013, to the northeast of the storm has recently plunged in pressure readings to 29.51" with wind gusts to 44 mph (ARCHIVED | LIVE) and waves have rapidly increased to 13.8 feet (ARCHIVED | LIVE). Other buoys and available coastal stations have been less impressive.

SATELLITE, LIGHTNING, WARNINGS, STORMS @ 5 PM (RadarPlus)

The local NEXRAD radar to watch is KILM/KLTX which is the "Wilmington" radar but is actually located considerably southwest of the city and should be in the direct path of landfall. You can see the latest animation on AccuWeather.com (PREMIUM | PRO).

Various shots from AccuWeather.com RadarPlus that I have snapped this evening are shown above and listed below:

(Shows Two Tornado Warnings)

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