Ernesto vs. Ivan, John and Ioke
Ernesto was upgraded back to a Tropical Storm last night as it moved over the warm waters off the Southeast coast and buoys measured higher winds and lower pressure. I'm adding additional radar loops to the archive as we move forward today.
The real problem here is that much of eastern North Carolina has received heavy rain associated with Ernesto (and a stalled front) during the last 24 hours, even though the storm has not yet arrived. Widespread areas of over 4 inches have been reported by Doppler-Estimated precipitation maps such as this one:
When you add on the rain expected from Ernesto (this is not an easy forecast due to the storm's potential interaction with the ocean and mountains):
Then you're talking the potential for over 10 inches of rain in eastern North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland. Moving into Pennsylvania, we hope that the rainfall will not rival Hurricane Ivan in 2004.
This storm brought 30-year record flooding to much of the state, including AccuWeather's home town, State College, PA. The Pennsylvania Ivan flooding situation, although it makes sense to remember at this juncture, was aggravated by an incoming cold front, a situation that we do not have this time.
But as the air moves up the mountains, rain intensity increases (rising air becomes more moist), so Ivan-like flooding is not out of the realm of possibility for PA.
Meanwhile, Hurricane John should move away from the Mexico coast after battering Acapulco, where there were storm surges reported at 10 feet and winds at 135 mph, neither of which are probably real reports, but simply the media echoing what the National Hurricane Center was estimating. Other than the city of Acapulco itself, reports will be slow to come in today due to the remoteness of the area. The airport at Acapulco only reported winds of 17 mph at its peak, though it did miss some observations. Over 7 inches of rain has officially been reported by that station in the last 24 hours. John will make a near-direct hit on southern Baja Friday morning.
And finally, Super Typhoon Ioke likely destroyed much of Wake Island overnight. No one was there to see it and it was the first time the island had been evacuated in 30 years (VOA News). Ioke is the strongest typhoon in that area in 12 years (FOX). A Category 5, it has sustained winds of 161 mph gusting to 195 mph and could pack a storm surge of 40 feet. Of course, since they were evac'd, there are no observations coming out of the airport.
Navy satellite shots from Ioke passing over Wake Island are archived here: Visible | Infrared. That's about as nasty as you can get - the whole island was totally consumed by the eyewall. Reminds me of Super Typhoon Keith passing over Rota in 1997.
