Cat. 3 Noreaster? Weird Model Hype
The hype is high today about a possible Nor'easter on Monday -- a nearly-Category-3-hurricane-strength* storm that could bring heavy rain, snow, high winds and beach erosion to the New England coast late Sunday and Monday.
The GFS pressure chart for Monday morning is a beaut:
We've even got a map out on it, which is unusual this early in the forecast:
What do the Forecast Models [JessePedia] say this morning? The DGEX develops a sub-980mb low off the Northeast coast, moves it up to Boston, then loops it around and goes south, then east, out to sea. Check out the loop.
Winter precipitation-wise, the NAM starts up snow in the southern Ohio Valley Saturday, then the DGEX (which is in total agreement at hour 84) moves this through Pennsylvania and into New England, getting enhanced by the Nor'easter.
The GFS, however, keeps a southern storm separate from a stronger (sub-968mb) Nor'easter that develops offshore, still giving New England heavy snow but dissing Pennsylvania and the Ohio Valley.
Believe it or not, it also does the "Martha's Vineyard Approach Then Out To Sea" thing that the DGEX does, though it doesn't actually loop the storm.
*967mb = 28.56" Hg; A Category 3 Hurricane Pressure is 28.50" Hg (WikiPedia).
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