Can 4th Weather Be Reliably Predicted Today?

Elliot Abrams (PREMIUM | PRO) wrote this in his blog today:

I thought this was an unusually frank admission from an AccuWeather meteorologist (and Frank will also be Strait with you). The truth is, we can't predict two days in advance whether or not a storm or shower will hit your house at fireworks time; we can only let you know that there is a chance. Many places may stay dry for the local fireworks show, but many may get rained out. The map below is a grand generalization of what may happen, and will likely change tomorrow and Friday.

Even using a high-resolution model such as the 4-KM WRF (which can predict individual thunderstorm cells) doesn't help, because models aren't yet good enough to place them exactly correctly on the map (as I've mentioned before).

The truth is, in a situation like this, you have to look to radar. If you have a street-level radar system such as AccuWeather.com RadarPlus, which also has PredictiveRadar, you can judge the timing of potential showers or thunderstorms pretty well, once the storms are on the radar. You can even plot your street address to keep an eye on things; I've done it before for yard sales, cookouts and more. So when your family asks you how their BBQ will go on the 4th, tell 'em they'll have to wait until Friday to find out.